Hail and Lightning Strike in Oklahoma, May 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

.UPDATE...
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NW AR TO NEAR MUSKOGEE...THEN
SWWD INTO SCNTRL OK. CONVECTION ACROSS SWRN MO HAS STRUGGLED
ALL EVENING...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BACKBUILDING AS CAP HAS
HELD STRONG. 00Z NAM SUPPORTS THE 18Z RUN OF THE PARALLEL ETA
WITH CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. WILL DROP
OR LIMIT POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ALONG
THE RED RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 6
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
108 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
KANSAS LATER TODAY AND THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
LIMITED THREAT OF TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT THIS
EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AFTER 4 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE
AREA...A DRYLINE SETTING UP TO THE WEST AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. SPECIFIC DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME...RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS BECOME MORE SPECIFIC.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

OKZ065-020600-
OKFUSKEE OK-
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 1234 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTHEAST OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...
MASON...OKFUSKEE AND WELTY.

A LARGE PORTION OF OKFUSKEE COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 100 AM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

OKZ074-020615-
HASKELL OK-
1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL

AT 1237 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENTERPRISE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...
LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...MC CURTAIN...ENTERPRISE...
WHITEFIELD...KEOTA AND KANIMA.

A LARGE PORTION OF HASKELL COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 115 AM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

OKZ066-070-071-020645-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1248 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 1248 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GRAYSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PORTIONS OF MUSKOGEE...OKMULGEE AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 145 AM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.