Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 5 to 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
85H TEMPS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
GENERAL 85H TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 24C IN THE NE TO 28-29 IN THE
SW. WITH THIS IN MIND AND LACK OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPE OR MIXING
POTENTIAL WILL UNDERCUT THE USUALLY WARM 2M NAM BY A FEW DEGREES.
PCPN CHANCES ALSO DECREASE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. OUR NW FLOW TONIGHT SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. LEE TROFFING
DOES DEVELOP WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH EVENING OVER ERN
COLORADO BUT BASED ON STEERING FLOW WHAT DEVELOPS IN THE WEST WILL
REMAIN IN THE WEST.

SAT LOOP SHOWING S/W TROF CROSSING NORTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON W/ SFC OBS DISPLAYING A TONGUE OF MOISTURE (+55 DWPTS)
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO ERN COLORADO. 18Z SOUNDING AT DDC
SHOWING 7H TEMP OF 15C WHICH IS CLOSE TO PROGGED MODELS TEMPS OVER
DDC. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THE PROGGED MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
OUR NE/ERN MOST CWA THIS EVENING STILL IS ON TRACK. CONVECTION
THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF OUR S/W TROF WHICH WAS
LOCATED OVER NRN CO EARLIER TODAY. WAA AND 925-85H MOISTURE AXIS
ALONG THE MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE STILL PROGGED OVER OUR N/NE
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SO WITH THIS IN MIND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS
THE N/NE AND SLT CHC POPS IN THE SW.

DAYS 3-7...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE NEW GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EC IN HOT
850MB TEMPS OF 30 TO 32C FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE HOT 850MB
TEMPS WOULD GIVE SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE CENTURY MARK, SO HAVE WARMED
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY
THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN BRANCH
WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THEN BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM IF THE CAP CAN BREAK
IN THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. FOR NOW AM THINKING ISOLATED SO WILL
GO DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  63  93 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  65  88  61  93 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  63  87  62  94 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  65  89  64  95 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  65  87  61  93 /  40   0   0   0
P28  67  87  67  95 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
532 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
532 AM CDT (432 AM MDT) MON JUN 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AND MAINLY EAST OF A DIGHTON...DODGE CITY...COLDWATER LINE.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

JOHNSON