Hail and Damaging Winds in Colorado, June 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT MON JUN 5 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WY AND CO
BORDER. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 30S. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WITH READINGS AROUND 50. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH NERN CO...AROUND A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF AKO TO
OGA. SPC HAS ALREADY GONE WITH A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS OUR
FAR ERN CO COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING. LAPS ANAYLSIS SHOWING
1500-2000J/KG ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND THESE NUMBERS CONCIDE WITH
CAPE FCST SOUNDINGS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMTER AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE 30-40KT MID LVL FLOW AVAILABLE.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFYING INTO CO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW
LVL MSTR CAN WE HOLD ONTO FOR TUESDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POP A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. AS USUAL...NAM DEWPOINTS ARE
TOO HIGH TUES AFTN WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. THESE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BETTER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR TUE AFTN
BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER
TO US. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE PULSY IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY ISOLD POPS...BEST CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILLS BUT NOT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO LOW LVL STABILITY.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...PERSISTANT UPR RDG WL DRIFT JUST A BIT EWD
WED ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO DVLP ACRS THE AREA.  DPR MSTR SHOULD BE
STEERED INTO THE RGN AS A RESULT.  LOOKG AT MDL SOUNDINGS...PW AMTS
CLIMB PROGRESSIVELY UPWARD WED...REACHING NRLY AN INCH BY WED
NIGHT.  HWVR...TEMP PROFILE NOT AT ALL FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS
AIRMASS WL REMAIN HOT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE AMT OF MSTR
AVBL WED AND THURS...WENT AHD AND INCRSD POPS OVR THE MTNS TO SCT.
WL LV PLAINS IN ISOLD POPS CAT AS IT WL PBLY BE TOO STBL FOR MUCH
TSTM ACTIVITY.  TEMPS WL RMN IN THE LWR 90S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
ACRS THE PLAINS.  CLDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER READINGS
SOMEWHAT IN THE MTNS THOUGH.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MSTR CONNECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
SHUT OFF AS A TROF OVR THE PACIFIC NW MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKY MTN
STATES.  INCRSG WLY FLOW ALF WL PUSH MUCH OF THE MSTR EAST OF US SO
WL RMV POPS FROM THE PLAINS THIS WKND.  MORE HOT TEMPS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND INCRS SUBSIDENCE APPARENT IN THE
CROSS SECTIONS.  WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SAT.
LONGER RANGE MDLS INDG A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COOL AIR WL INFILTRATE
THE NRN PLAINS.  DGEX AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS INDG COOL AIR WL
SPILL INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT LATER GFS RUNS KEEP THE FRONT
HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH.  EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS COOLER WEATHER MAY
FINALLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SWE/K046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1140 AM MDT MON JUN 05 2006

COZ030>051-061200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1140 AM MDT MON JUN 05 2006

...CORRECTION TO SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TOWARDS
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW STORMS OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM LIMON TO GREELEY. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACROSS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR...MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LOWER...SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LIMON TO GREELEY.

SWE/046