Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE AND PROFILER LOOPS SHOW TAIL END OF ENERGY FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IOWA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS THEN UP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY. MUCAPES RUNNING FROM 1500 TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIFT OVER THE SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONTS AND
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS
ACROSS NEBRASKA. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MCS WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT
AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND BLOWING UP QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE GFS AND LEANED MORE TOWARD IT FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE RUC
IS DOING FAIRLY GOOD WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION.

MORNING POPS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE
NORTHEAST CWA WITH THE CONVECTION DEPARTING. SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED ACROSS
THE CWA WITH UPPER WAVE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON WEDS WITH GFS PUSHING BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. NAM KEEPS SURFACE
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S.
WITH BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS...ALONG WITH GFS FEEDBACK
CONCERNS...HAVE CHOSEN THE WARMER NAM SOLUTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...H5 HIGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE NM/TX
REGION...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. MODELS STILL VARY
WIDELY WITH SURFACE FEATURES. NAM KEEPS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GFS WASHING THE BOUNDARY OUT FURTHER SOUTHWEST. TOYED WITH
ADDING POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTN WITH BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND BUT
LACKED CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT TO CHANGE GOING DRY
FORECAST. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THESE DAYS...THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACTS TO DEPRESS
H5 RIDGING. ADDED POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE EC AND
GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS ENERGY SHOULD SEND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS TREND...POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
356 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES RESIDING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NORTHEAST OF A LAWRENCE TO WASHINGTON LINE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
723 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

KSZ034-080115-
OTTAWA-
723 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

THROUGH 815 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 10 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE MINNEAPOLIS.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE THE STORM FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND
A WARNING IS ISSUED.