Tornado and Hail in Indiana, June 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE. LAST OF THE TRW
ACTIVITY NEAR ATTICA AND TERRE HAUTE AND MOVING SE AROUND 25 MPH.
BMG SHOULD BE THE ONLY SITE WITH ACTIVITY SHORTLY AFT 12Z BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT BY LATE MRNG TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 19Z LAF AND HUF AND 21Z BMG AND IND...AND WL
END TRWS THEN. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CB PRIOR TO FROPA AND
THEN BKN VFR CONDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AC DECK SCATTERS
EARLY IN THE EVE. NW WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID
FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING.  MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA MAKES IT TO THE CWA.

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL USE A BLEND.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.  A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY AND
WILL HELP SPARK A ROUND OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.  SFC FRONT WAS OVER
NW IL AT 07Z WITH NO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN SOMEWHERE IN NRN IL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT INTO INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS SPC MENTIONS IN THE DY1 OUTLOOK...SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZATION AND SOME SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND END NEAR SUNSET.

AFTER WED ATMS DRIES OUT AS HI PRES IN CANADA TRIES TO SQUEEZE IN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF HI PRES OVR THE SRN CONUS.  THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A
LITTLE MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRINGS THE
SFC HI A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS DOES THE GFS.
THAT SAID HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO A SCHC ON SUN AND LOWER CHANCE POPS
ON SUN AFTN.  WITH THE MODEL TREND ALSO TOWARD COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS WELL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...SALLY
AVIATION...KOCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-080800-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
253 AM CDT WED JUN 7 2006 /353 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY END BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SALLY