Damaging Winds in Utah, June 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
900 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.  STILL
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO LIMIT RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN AT MOST...WITH MAIN IMPACT
COMING FROM GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS.

QUICK LOOK AT LATEST 12Z NAM INDICATES BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER N.
UTAH MAY BE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL WAIT TO SEE
PARALLEL NAM/WRF AND 12Z GFS...BUT IF THEY COME IN THE SAME WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY PERIODS.

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KSLC TERMINAL AND
APPROACH AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT IS STRONG
SURFACE WINDS AND THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION FOR THUNDERSTORM WINDS
IS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS IS LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WX WATCH BEING UPDATED TO RED FLAG WARNING.
THIS MORNINGS BALLOON RELEASE AT SLC AND DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE
WATCH/WARNING AREA STILL SUPPORT IDEA OF LESS THAN .10 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LIGHTNING.  SHOULD BE GOOD CONDITIONS OF LIGHTNING CAUSED
FIRE STARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PEAK FLOWS WILL OCCUR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON RIVERS
DRAINING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH SLOT
CANYONS...THEN DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS NOON
TO MIDNIGHT TODAY BELOW 8000 FEET EASTERN AND WESTERN BASINS...FIRE
ZONES 420...428>434-436-438 AND 445>449.
WY...NONE.
&&

DUNN/WILENSKY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
620 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-081300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
620 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS UTAH AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY. IN THE LOWER DESERTS OF NORTHWEST AND
EASTERN UTAH...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE
SEVERE FIRE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE BUT THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN
SOUTHERN UTAH SLOT CANYONS WILL INCREASE. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

GIBSON