Hail in Illinois, March 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MANY...BUT MAINLY INVOLVE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

BUSY DAY SO WILL TRY TO BE BRIEF.  THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS.  THE NAM IS QUICKER TO
BRING EACH ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE
EVENING...AND FASTER TO SWEEP IT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION BY 18Z
THE FOLLOWING THE DAY.  THE GFS ADVERTISES A BEGIN TIME OF 06Z OR
LATER...AND ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS THE BAND OF CONVECTION EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING DAY.

SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE A RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN NO SURFACE FRONTS AND CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  INSTEAD THE GFS/S SOLUTION OF DRIFTING THE CONVECTION SLOWLY
EASTWARD AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE NEXT DAY SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MORE OF A PLAYER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN GETTING OUT OF THE REGION
MONDAY...THAN IT WILL BE SUNDAY.  IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...WE WILL BE
GRUNGED OUT SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE
STORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
OF COURSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE A PLEASANT FORECAST EITHER.  WILL
PROBABLY STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS-BASED MAV NUMBERS.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...STORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING.  THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AHEAD OF
THE STORMS...LEADING TO PLENTY OF HELICITY FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR ABOVE THE LLJ.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
TONIGHTS EVENT...WITH A LESSER...BUT NOT NEGLIBLE DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT.  THE OVERALL SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR THE EVENT. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FIND EVEN 1 INCH OF QPF...SO WOULD EXPECT FLOODING PROBLEMS TO BE
TIED TO THE STRONGEST STORMS AND ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...WHICH
COULD BE A PROBLEM OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHTS EVENT...WHICH SHOULD BE THE FINAL EPISODE FOR
AWHILE...THERE WILL MORE FORCING...AND STRONGER WIND
FIELDS...HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE SHEAR IN THE STORM BEARING LAYER.
AS STATED ABOVE...INSTABILITY COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IF WE DO
NOT SEE ANY SUNSHINE SUNDAY.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET GOING OUT
TO THE WEST OF US NEAR THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.  WITH THE FORCING...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE STORMS WILL HAVE FORMED ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS
BEFORE THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.  THIS WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE FOREFRONT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH A LESSER EMPHASIS ON
TORNADOES AND HAIL.  ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
INTERESTING...GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD TRENDS.

GIVEN THE POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY...AND WILL NOT BE
AS ISOLATED AS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES BEFORE THINGS COME TO AN END ON MONDAY.  KEEP YOUR MOPS HANDY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IN THE CURRENT LESS INTERESTING EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT GFS BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING IT ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE
TIMING BUT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK.  FOR NOW JUST INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND WILL FINE TUNE AS THE EVENT GETS
CLOSER.  BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND
SEASONAL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A MIX OF MEX VALUES AND HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DRS/RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1213 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS EARLY AS 9 PM THIS EVENING...SEVERE STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A
FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE FOUR
STATE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...AS THE STORM CLUSTERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONCE
AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOOD PROBLEMS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
THEY ENCOUNTER...AS WELL AS ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1117 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             MOUNT VERNON            38.32N 88.91W
03/11/2006  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND REPORTED.

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1125 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NE MOUNT VERNON       38.38N 88.83W
03/11/2006  E60 MPH          JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1121 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE MOUNT VERNON       38.38N 88.83W
03/11/2006  E65 MPH          JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1132 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     HAIL             MOUNT VERNON            38.32N 88.91W
03/11/2006  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED EAST OF MOUNT
            VERNON.

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1142 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     HAIL             MCLEANSBORO             38.09N 88.53W
03/11/2006  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1144 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TAMAROA                 38.14N 89.23W
03/11/2006                   PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER ACROSS U.S. HWY 51 A THE PERRY COUNTY/WASHINTON
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1145 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     HAIL             MCLEANSBORO             38.09N 88.53W
03/11/2006  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEN