Hail in Illinois, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE
MEANTIME A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CAP...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.

LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AT
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA FROM WEST
TO EAST AND THE NAM/WRF HAS IT ROUGHLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. MODELS ALSO BRING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. SEE NO REASON
NOT TO CONTINUE WITH A GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.  AS A RESULT...WE
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE
FIRST 60 HOURS...WITH NO CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...NONE

MO...NONE

IL...NONE

IN...NONE.
&&

JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ADVISORY AREA IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...
HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...HEAT INDICES SHOULD
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL EXIST OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
127 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILZ088-089-092-093-KYZ004-101900-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-JOHNSON IL-PULASKI IL-UNION IL-
127 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF STORMS...

THE LINE OF GUSTY WINDS...RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...WILL MOVE FROM
MILL CREEK...PULASKI...MOUNDS ILLINOIS AND BERTRAND MISSOURI...ONWARD
TO CYPRESS ILLINOIS...LA CENTER AND WICKLIFFE KENTUCKY BY 2 PM.
LOOSE OBJECTS AND OTHER UNSECURED OBJECTS LEFT OUTDOORS WILL BE
BLOWN AROUND. SMALL TREES AND LIMBS WILL ALSO BE TOPPLED BY THESE
WINDS...AND MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES WHERE TREE LIMBS FALL ON POWER
LINES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOME 10 TO 15 MINUTES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
146 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             ZEIGLER                 37.90N 89.05W
08/10/2006  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
154 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             ZEIGLER                 37.90N 89.05W
08/10/2006  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
203 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W WEST FRANKFORT      37.90N 88.95W
08/10/2006  E70 MPH          FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE...QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH
            THIS STORM

&&

JG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
214 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILZ090-091-094-KYZ005-007-102015-
HARDIN IL-LIVINGSTON KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-POPE IL-
214 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF STORMS...

THE LINE OF GUSTY WINDS...RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...WILL MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF POPE...HARDIN...AND MASSAC COUNTIES IN
ILLINOIS...AND MCCRACKEN AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WEST
KENTUCKY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ABOUT 15 MINUTES BEFORE THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.

LOOSE OBJECTS AND OTHER UNSECURED OBJECTS LEFT OUTDOORS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND. SMALL TREES AND LIMBS WILL ALSO BE TOPPLED BY THESE WINDS...
AND MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES WHERE TREE LIMBS FALL ON POWER LINES.

SMITH/CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
215 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E JONESBORO           37.45N 89.23W
08/10/2006                   UNION              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

JG