Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND SOME WARMING ALOFT. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE DRIER AIR IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH A WEAK WARM NOSE IN THE
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUNDINGS...NOT MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
POPS IS EXPECTED...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
UNDER INCREASING HEIGHTS...WHILE RISING DEW POINTS REACH VALUES JUST
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT...A LIGHT WEST WIND IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE GUST POTENTIAL AS WINDS ALOFT
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT IN THE MIXED LAYER.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AS WELL. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO MIX OUT A LITTLE...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND ELEVATION MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
CAP...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHC FOR NOW. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY. HEIGHTS LOWER AS TROF BUILDS IN
THE EAST. MID-LEVEL TEMPS COOL AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
STILL BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SO CHC POP THERE
AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY...THEN
JUST A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TRENDS STILL QUITE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND GOING
FORECAST THINKING. SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY AND OUT LATE FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
SATURDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE REAL QUESTION
REMAINS WHEN WILL THE BEST CHANCE BE AS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. THEREFORE POP REMAINS IN THE
CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHEST POP NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN
SOUTH LATER. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DRY FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT ON. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THU AND FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL ON
EITHER SIDE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL EARLY...THEN BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH LATER WITH FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE TAFS.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS TO CARRY SCATTERED CUMULUS...WITH
SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THUNDERSTORM ANVILS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE AREA IN A STAGNANT AIR
MASS...HAZE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY AGAIN TONIGHT AS
VERTICAL MIXING CEASES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AT KAND WHICH
IS CLOSEST TO A SURFACE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A
REDUCED DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT KAND FOR JUST A FEW HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO CARRY CATEGORICAL
MVFR VISIBILITY. AT KAVL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MVFR
VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE DAWN...WHERE BOTH HAZE AND FOG WILL BE
CARRIED. THE WIND WILL COME UP FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
MORNING...MIXING OUT THE HAZE...AND ISOLATED CUMULUS WILL BE
CARRIED LATE IN THE MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020715-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             1 NW NINE TIMES         34.93N 82.86W
07/01/2006  E0.25 INCH       PICKENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

SBURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             NINE TIMES              34.92N 82.84W
07/01/2006  E0.75 INCH       PICKENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT NINE TIMES FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

SBURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
432 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             6 ESE BREVARD           35.20N 82.63W
07/01/2006  E0.75 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

            PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL OCCURRED FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE

            CASCADE RECREATION AREA IN SOUTHEAST TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             4 NW WALHALLA           34.81N 83.11W
07/01/2006  E0.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            SUMTER NATIONAL FOREST ANDREW-PICKENS DISTRICT RANGER
            REPORTED HAIL UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH DIAMETER ALONG
            WITH A WIND GUST OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             WESTMINSTER             34.67N 83.08W
07/01/2006  U1.00 INCH       OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            500 PM 07/01/2006 AND 515 PM 07/01/2006

&&

RWH