Hail in Florida, June 20, 2006

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...DIURNAL EVENING CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG ESPECIALLY OVER THE NATURE COAST AND IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA
WILL PROVIDE AN EAST NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST POPS (30%) SETTING UP ALONG WEST
COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST.
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY LINGERING STORMS MOVING WEST INTO THE ADJACENT GULF...WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL/SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR (PWS DECREASING
TO 1.25 OR LESS) FROM THE EAST AROUND THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND THE UPPER LOW (TUTT) OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOWER PWS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER RAIN AND POP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET/MAV NUMBERS...SO WILL DEPICT
ISOLATED POPS 20% IN THE GRIDS...WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN LIKELY TO
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW AGAIN KEEPS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM(THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL TREND
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BASICALLY GFS/DGEX/ECMWF AGREE IN
HAVING THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WHICH THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO DEPICTED ON GFS
NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHICH REACHES FLORIDA BY THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
DGEX SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT SLOWER
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION
MATERIALIZES IT SEEMS THAT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
WEAK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING
PREVAILING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THIS WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...SEA BREEZES WILL RETURN EACH
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE OR AT NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. WIND/SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OVER THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT FMY AND RSW. VFR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL AFTER 02Z. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 5-6SM IN HAZE ARE POSSIBLE WHICH SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  92  75  92 /  20  30  10  20
FMY  74  93  74  93 /  30  30  10  20
GIF  75  93  75  93 /  30  20  10  20
SRQ  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  68  92  71  93 /  20  20  10  20
SPG  76  91  77  90 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>051-055-060-201530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
SARASOTA-
447 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDAS SUNCOAST FROM
LEVY COUNTY THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AND SARASOTA AREAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND OVER CENTRAL
PINELLAS COUNTY WHERE A WEAK BAY BREEZE INTERSECTS WITH THE
INITIAL GULF SEA BREEZE. THESE STORMS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE STORMS
WILL EASE BACK TOWARD THE COAST BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY DO
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
SMALL HAIL. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND PERHAPS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH.

REMEMBER: LIGHTNING CAN KILL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN FLORIDAS
RAINY SEASON. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE
STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAYS HAZARDS...GO TO

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL DAILY WEATHER HAZARDS LINK IN THE BLUE
MAP FRAME. ALSO...THIS WEEK IS LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK. SEE

HTTP://WWW.LIGHTNINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-201530-
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
447 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2
AND 4 PM AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS MAY ALLOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF UP TO 3 INCHES TO FALL...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR BRIEF MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER AND PERHAPS
A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING.

REMEMBER: LIGHTNING CAN KILL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN FLORIDAS RAINY
SEASON. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE
STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY AS A WEAK BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDES THE MOISTURE AND TRIGGER FOR THE DAILY ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY WISH
TO SELF ACTIVATE SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THEIR AREA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAYS HAZARDS...GO TO

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL DAILY WEATHER HAZARDS LINK IN THE BLUE
MAP FRAME. ALSO...THIS WEEK IS LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK. SEE

HTTP://WWW.LIGHTNINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

FOR MORE INFORMATION.

BSG