Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT...WEAK STACKED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IS ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE TO BECOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINMAKERS WITH PORTIONS OF JACKSONVILLE ALREADY PICKING UP 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE AREAS ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF GNV. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
TUESDAY...DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MINGLE WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES TO KICK OF SCTD
TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET WILL PROBABLY SEE AREAS OF FOG WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACRS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
SHOULD SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY AND KEEP IT ISOLD OVER
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND EXCEPT NR 90 ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING MIN TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY...DEEP NELY FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN HOT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE EASTERLY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE. MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...06Z AND 12Z GFS STILL CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE SE WITH A POSSIBLE EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRENDED POPS INTO THE 30-50%
RANGE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE POPS.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING PACKAGE. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS AOB 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  93  70  96 /  10  20   5  10
SSI  73  87  73  90 /  10  20   0   5
JAX  69  89  69  92 /  20  40  10   5
SGJ  72  87  72  87 /  10  30  20   5
GNV  69  92  69  94 /  20  40  30  10
OCF  69  93  70  94 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HESS
MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN
(COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-
PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
535 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. MORE INFO ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
SURF ZONE FORECAST.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.  THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
523 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

FLZ040-192215-
MARION-
523 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUMMERFIELD...OR 8
MILES WEST OF THE VILLAGES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BELLEVIEW AND LAKE WEIR
THROUGH 615 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE