Hail in Colorado, May 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
PLAINS...RADAR SHOWING MOST OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF AKRON AND EAST OF
ELBERT...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ACTIVITY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL.  NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS WYOMING WITH TAIL END ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO.
NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS EVENING.  WILL ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER A BIT TO REFLECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  SURFACE DATA
SHOWING NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE 40S BEHIND THIS SURGE...SO THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS COULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE MEASUABLE PRECIPITATION.  SHEAR
MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. STILL...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOUNTAINS COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN...AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SHORTWAVE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
WITH QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS SHOWING DESCENT OVERNIGHT.
THUS...SHOULD SEE AN END OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.  ON TUESDAY...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND 18Z WITH DIV-Q
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS INDICATING ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOWING NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS PLAINS
AT THAT TIME. COMBINATION OF ASCENT AND UPSLOPE SUFFICIENT OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED POPS DURING AFTERNOON. AMS TO BECOME UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AREA.
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVING
ONTO PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS
PROGS SHOW ABOUT A 2 DEGREE CELSIUS COOL DOWN FROM TODAYS READINGS.
TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEEM REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUE NGT-THU...MDLS MOVE SHT WV ACRS CNTRL
RCKYS TUES NGT.  SYS HAS GUD DYNAMICS AND UPWRD Q-G OMEGA.  MDLS SHW
GUD PCPN TUE EVE...BUT CAPES ARE LESS THAN 100 J/KG SO WILL MENTION
SCT SHWRS AND ONLY ISOLD TSTMS.  MDLS SHW CDFNT SURGE ON PLAINS
WEAKER THAN YSTRDY WITH ANOTHER SURGE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE.  SO
WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS OVR PLAINS AFT MIDNGT ON PLAINS WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPG BFR DAYBRK IN LO LVL UPSLP FLO. WILL KEEP ONLY A
SLGHT CHC TO CHC OF SHWRS OVR PLAINS ON WED AFTN AS MDLS KEEP PCPN
WELL TO E OF MTNS.  AMS RMNS CAPPED ON WED...SO NO TSTMS.  ON THU
UPR RDG BEGINS TO BUILD OVR AREA AND AMS WILL RMN CAPPED AND DRY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON WED WITH A GUD AMT OF CLDNS AND SFC HI PRES
E OF MTNS.  WILL TREND TEMPS TWD THE COOLER GFS MOS GDNC ON WED AS
THE ETA MOS IS 12 DEGS HIR THAN THE GFS VALUE AT DEN.  TEMPS WILL
WARM ON THU WITH MORE SUN AND AND SUM WARMG ALF.  WILL GENLY
COMPROMISE WITH MOS TEMP VALUES IN OTHER PRDS.

IN EXTENDED PRD...FRI-MON...MDLS MAINTAIN AN UPR RDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS
THRU PRD.  WILL KEEP THE AMS DRY THRU PRD ATTM...EVEN THO CLIMO WUD
SUGGEST PCPN ON 1 DAY OUT OF 3.  TEMPS WILL BE ARND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

D-L/GARD...WFO BOULDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1102 AM MDT MON MAY 08 2006

COZ030>051-091200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1102 AM MDT MON MAY 08 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ABOVE
10000 FEET.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ON THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY AND
WARMER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

D-L/GARD...WFO BOULDER