Hail and Damaging Wind in Iowa, May 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...

FROM 12Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS
AM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BE EXITING TODAY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE JET MAX MOVING ONTO NW COAST OF 125-150 KTS. THE
SHORTWAVE AT 250MB EXITING THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DEEP WITH
REFLECTIONS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AT 700 AND 850MB AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER
SRN MS VALLEY EXITING INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AT
AROUND 850 MB.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT TUESDAY WEDNESDAY

BOTH NAM/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT 12-36 HOURS ON MOST OF
MAIN FEATURES. SHORT TERM FORECASTER DELAYED ONSET OF ORGANIZED AND
HIGHER CHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER WEST TONIGHT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 06 UTC WITH THINKING
TIMING WISE GFS LOOKED THE BEST. WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION AS SFC TROF/FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA WITH LOW TO
MODERATE CAPE...WEAK VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND BULK SHEAR ABOVE
40 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL.  SO BEST SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MISPLACED FOR A BETTER CASE SCENARIO FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 12Z. FOR TUESDAY...WEAK 850 MB THERMAL RIDGING WITH +10 TO
+12C AIR...AND EVEN WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S EASILY WITH A FAIRLY
UNIFORM AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IOWA. USED THE PREFERRED GFS WITH THE
40 KM RESOLUTION  TOMORROW FOR PCPN/QPF FIELDS AND ADJUSTED AND WILL
BUMP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AS DAYS LIKE THIS ARE OUR
TYPICAL TEMPERATURE BUST DAY.

LIKE THE GFSMOS GRID FOR PCPN TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT SEEMS TO REFLECT
WELL THE PCPN FIELDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...BUT THINK THE GFS
OVERDOES THE PCPN DURING THE DAY WED AS NAM AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENCES
ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF POST FRONTAL H5 SHORTWAVES. WILL MAKE NO
CHANGE TO WEDNESDAY EARLY DAY FORECAST AS MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS HOWEVER WILL BLEND CURRENT AFTERNOON
FORECAST WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHOWALTERS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY/WEAKLY UNSTABLE PER GFS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (DAYS 3-7)

GFS/EURO/UKMET ALL IN GENERALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH 72 HOURS
WITH POLAR VORTEX RETROGRADING FROM QUEBEC TO HUDSON BAY. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  BY THURSDAY WHICH MEANDERS  THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND AND DOES BATTLES WITH THE  BLOCKING HIGH WHICH
BECOMES SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA BY THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES  REFLECTED
IN THE TEMPERATURES  AND PCPN GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S ON DAY 4 WHERE MORE COOL ADVECTION IS LIKELY
TO BE TAKING PLACE...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BY WEEKS END.

ADDED ADJUSTED HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS TO DAY 6 (SUNDAY) WITH BOTH MODELS
GIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF STATE. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE HERE THUS THE LOW POPS HOWEVER THE GFS DEPICTS AND TO A
SLIGHT DEGREE THE ECMWF AS WELL THE FORECAST  AREA ON THE NORTHSIDE
OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INVOF MO RIVER VALLEY AND BEING BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND UPPER LOW TO NORTHEAST FELT POPS WERE WARRANTED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RUSSELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>035-044>046-057-058-070-071-081-092-
091100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-ADAMS-TAYLOR-
312 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA WEST
OF AN ALGONA TO BEDFORD LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM.

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-072>075-
082>086-093>097-091100-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
312 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
EAST OF AN ALGONA TO BEDFORD LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A WATERLOO TO BEDFORD LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED