Heavy Snow in Colorado, March 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
318 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO SHOWING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL QUITE MILD ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WITH FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN HIGH
VALLEYS ARE FLIRTING WITH A MIX AND RAIN AND SNOW.

DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING SET TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
THE BULK OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOONER FOR NORTHEAST UTAH. SNOW LEVEL
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND COLDER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA. H7 LOW CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT. A RESPECTABLE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL KICK IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAUS OF NORTHEAST
UTAH SHOULD BREAK OUT OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE REST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA
RIVER BASIN CONTINUING TO SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE WINDING DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC SNOW AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. RAMPED POPS UP AGAIN
ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG UPPER JET AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND NO
MAJOR DEVIATION FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS. LINDQUIST

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY): AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK TO AREA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THESE PERIODS. A
FOOT OR TWO OF NEW MTN SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE SOUTHERN MTNS FINALLY GETTING THEIR SHARE. TWIN
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHERN BC AND LEE-SIDE ALBERTA SLOWLY DIG
SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A COLD AND
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS COME CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION FOR
NEXT TUESDAY WITH LESS PROGRESSION. ALSO IT IS NOTED THAT THE COLD
AIR NOW PROGGED OVER THE CWA GOES TO A STILL SEASONALLY IMPRESSIVE
-32C...BUT LESS THEN THE -36C PROGGED IN LAST WEEKS MODEL RUNS.
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS OR A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS SE THRU THE CWA AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE MTNS. THESE GRIDS WILL LIKELY BE
SPLIT INTO 6HR BLOCKS WITH LATER RUNS AS WE GAIN CERTAINTY ON
TIMING. HIGHLIGHTS LIKELY NEEDED FOR THESE PERIODS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: SW FLOW WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY KEEPS
HIGH POPS ESPECIALLY ON SW-FACING SLOPES LIKE THE ABAJO/LA

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 2 AND 5.
      SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 3...4...9...10...12...13...17...18...AND 19.
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 23 AND 25.
      SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 28.
&&

TAL/JR

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