Funnel Cloud in Colorado, August 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. SEVERAL REPORTS OF
HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ALONG WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NUDGING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. GOES SOUNDER SHOWING LIS DOWN IN THE ZERO TO -4 C RANGE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND DEEP INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.  HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT MOVES OVER THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES GREATLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...WL WORK ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES TO KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY GOING. BY MONDAY...
CONVECTION BECOMES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ATTM...MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT COOL-
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO OUR ENE ON
SUNDAY. HAVE SHAVED MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH OVER OVERNIGHT MINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS...WITH THE VALLEYS DROPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO THE EAST BY WED...
WITH A RETURN TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT PAC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. MOSTLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS TUE-WED. SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SNEAK NORTHWARD...BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED MTN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
EXPECTED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT MOVING THE PAC TROUGH INLAND TO THE NRN
ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN THU BUT THEN DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FRI-SAT.
GFS TAKES THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY SAT...THE 26/00Z ECWMF CLOSES
OFF A LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...AND THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE RUNS
SHOW WIDE VARIETY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/MEAN ENSEMBLE FOR THE
TIME BEING...MOVING A TROUGH BY TO THE NORTH WITH A COOL FRONT
DROPPING INTO AT LEAST NE UT/NW CO BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A BIT ACROSS THE N FRI-SAT...AND ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD CLOSER TO THE
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH IS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE FRI-SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

JDC/JAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-271145-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
455 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPDATE AT 5 PM MDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH
WESTERN COLORADO. THIS LINE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. THIS LINE
WILL PASS THROUGH RIFLE AND MONTROSE AROUND 530 PM...AND THROUGH
MEEKER TO GLENWOOD SPRINGS TO GUNNISON BETWEEN 630 AND 7 PM MDT.
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED BUT LESS INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND ALL TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ALL
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.

RAMEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
220 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     DOWNBURST        18 NW MOAB              38.76N 109.78W
08/26/2006                   GRAND              UT   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 51 KTS RECORDED

&&

NLARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
247 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             10 WNW CORTEZ           37.41N 108.75W
08/26/2006  M1.00 INCH       MONTEZUMA          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHREDDED LEAVES.

0218 PM     DOWNBURST        18 NW MOAB              38.76N 109.78W
08/26/2006                   GRAND              UT   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 51 KTS RECORDED

&&

NLARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             10 WNW CORTEZ           37.41N 108.75W
08/26/2006  M1.00 INCH       MONTEZUMA          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHREDDED LEAVES.

0218 PM     DOWNBURST        18 NW MOAB              38.76N 109.78W
08/26/2006                   GRAND              UT   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 51 KTS RECORDED

0340 PM     HAIL             GRAND JUNCTION          39.09N 108.55W
08/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       MESA               CO   PUBLIC

            NEAR 25 ROAD AND HWY 6 AND 50.

&&

NLARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             10 WNW CORTEZ           37.41N 108.75W
08/26/2006  M1.00 INCH       MONTEZUMA          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHREDDED LEAVES.

0218 PM     DOWNBURST        18 NW MOAB              38.76N 109.78W
08/26/2006                   GRAND              UT   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 51 KTS RECORDED

0340 PM     HAIL             GRAND JUNCTION          39.09N 108.55W
08/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       MESA               CO   PUBLIC

            NEAR 25 ROAD AND HWY 6 AND 50.

0425 PM     TORNADO          5 ENE DINOSAUR          40.27N 108.92W
08/26/2006                   MOFFAT             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR SEVERAL MINUTES.

&&

NLARSON