Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AT 18Z...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONT OVER SW PA EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER SOUTHERN MD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER NORTHEAST MD IN A COLD AIR DAMMING SORT
OF REGIME...WHILE OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WAS EXPERIENCING CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MORE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR (DESPITE HIGHER HEIGHTS FROM A MID LEVEL RIDGE).

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE
FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP
OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM. INITIALLY...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING...A HIGHER COVERAGE WILL OCCUR MORE THAN LIKELY OVER
NORTHERN VA BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MD LATER TONIGHT. HAVE DRAWN THE POP/WX GRIDS TO SHOW THIS
TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH MANY ZONE GROUPINGS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS MAY
GENERICALLY SAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
DURING THE MORNING...THEN THE HIGHEST POPS WILL TILT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA AND HAVE
LEFT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...

AT 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS HAD RETURNED TO AREA TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KBWI WHICH WAS HOLDING ONTO AN MVFR CIG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
HIGHER CHANCES OF VSBY/CIG RESTRICTING RAINFALL LATER IN THE EVENING.
HAVE INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE 18Z TAFS...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR
FOG BEFORE TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY THIS EVENING BETWEEN
6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO NOT RAISE THE FLAG ATTM DUE TO
MARGINAL NATURE OF EVENT. CAPPED WIND AT 15 KT. HOWEVER...A MORE
IMPRESSIVE JET IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MIX DOWN SCA WINDS AT LEAST
OVER THE BAY STARTING SUN AFTERNOON. SCA WILL BEGIN AT 21Z SUN.

ON THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. CHANNELLING UP THE BAY WILL ALLOW WINDS THERE TO GET
TO 20 KT DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND IT WILL GET HUNG UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC UNTIL IT GETS A PUSH
FROM A DIGGING SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THAT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSRA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THERE IS EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ON LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WITH THE GFS BRINGING A WEAK SFC LOW EAST ACROSS VA ALONG THE FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN A SIGNIFICANT
500 MB TROF CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAT WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS AND
LOWER DWPTS. THE ONLY HANG UP MAY BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AT THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE MIDWEEK IN WEST CENTRAL VA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
     MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...STRONG
AVIATION...PELOQUIN
MARINE...STRONG/PELOQUIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-271000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
257 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY ON THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.

STRONG