Flash Flood and Hail in Oklahoma, August 26 to 27, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES JUST SOUTH OF TULSA
AT THIS TIME.  ONE BOUNDARY TO SOUTHWEST AR
WHILE OTHER BACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
TX.  MEANWHILE FRONT FROM NEAR KOJC TO NEAR
KCDS. ALL THIS TO MERGE OVER NORTHWEST HALF
TSA FORECAST AREA.  LATEST LOCAL GFE GRIDED
LI IN MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 RANGE..WITH COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEAT.  AT LEAST AS
POTENT AS YESTERDAY...WITH A LARGER PART OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INVOLVED. SEVERE THUNDER
WATCH TO 11 PM THIS EVENING..NORTHWEST HALF
CWA.

MODELS AGREE ON COOLER SOLUTIONS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. GFS STILL HAS CONVECTIVE FEVER WITH
10 INCHES PRECIP IN 6 HOURS WEST CENTRAL OK
ENDING 06Z. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LESS GFS
EMPHASIS USED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH POPS.
COUNTING ON PRECIP AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
IN CHECK SUNDAY.                         GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  87  73  89 /  60  80  60  20
FSM   76  92  74  89 /  40  50  80  40
MLC   76  92  73  90 /  40  60  60  30
BVO   71  86  67  87 /  80  80  60  20
FYV   71  87  71  86 /  40  50  80  40
BYV   72  86  71  85 /  40  50  70  40
MKO   73  88  72  88 /  40  70  70  30
MIO   73  87  70  86 /  60  70  70  30
F10   74  90  72  88 /  50  70  60  30
HHW   76  94  74  88 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 5
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREAD INDEX=47.
	AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE PART OF AN COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES  AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL REMAINING THE MAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WILL TOP OUT AROUND OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER A LARGE PART OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDEXES OF 102 TO
110 DEGREES OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
EACH DAY WILL POSE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MID
WEEK BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES  LATE
THIS WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

OKZ070-072-262145-
MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
405 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH

AT 405 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF WEBBERS FALLS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GORE AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
422 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

OKZ068-069-072-262200-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
422 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 422 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF MARBLE CITY...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUNCH...MARBLE CITY AND COOKSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.