High Wind in California, September 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
258 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA IS ALREADY FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGER STORM...AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST IN
RESPONSE. LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...A MIX OF DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED LIFTING AHEAD OF THE STRONG
UPPER LOW. OVERALL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
WINDS STILL THE MAIN STORY. RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AND FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS VALLEY
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY. ALSO ADDED
WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG WESTERLY PUSH MOVES INTO AREAS WHICH ARE NATURALLY PRONE TO
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS DUE TO TERRAIN ORIENTATION. WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL ADVISE DAY CREW. BIG COOLING TREND STILL ON
THE WAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DRAGS CANADIAN AIR THROUGH
OUR AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY TRICKY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG MIXING BATTLE IT OUT. SUNDAY MORNING WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST IN MOST SPOTS AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND ALLOW
FOR AIRMASS STRATIFICATION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FOR THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS ALLOWING AREA TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS WILL
RELAX ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT MAY STILL SEE ENHANCED
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER
TUESDAY HOWEVER...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS
MODELS ARE SWINGING A SECOND COLD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PAC NW ON
WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BRINGING T.S LANE ACROSS BAJA MEXICO.
CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS IT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
MEXICO IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO ITS PREDECESSOR HURRICANE JOHN WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AND THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES AS THE PAC NW LOW DROPS DOWN.
HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO T.S. LANE.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDOR OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE FROM LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
TO 40-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE DAGGETT AND BISHOP CORRIDORS AND 30-35
KTS ELSEWHERE. TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR
KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...KBIH...KDAG...KEED...FOR DETAILS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...RED FLAG WARNING FIRE ZONES 460 THROUGH 465 11 AM TO 9 PM
      TODAY.
      FIRE WEATHER WATCH FIRE ZONES 460 THROUGH 466 FRIDAY MORNING
      THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
.AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FIRE ZONES 101 AND 102 FRIDAY MORNING
      THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
.CA...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 520 11 AM TO 9 PM TODAY.
      WIND ADVISORY ZONES 523 AND 525 NOON TO 9 PM TODAY.
      RED FLAG WARNING FIRE ZONES 226 THROUGH 228 11 AM TO 9 PM
      TODAY.
      FIRE WEATHER WATCH FIRE ZONES 226 THROUGH 229 FRIDAY MORNING
      THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

MORGAN/MOSES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS