Strong Wind in California, May 26 to 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 PM PDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...UPPER TROF IS
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
MOVING THRU IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
MOVES IN LATER TODAY...IT WILL COUPLE WITH HEALTHY 16 MB SFO-LAS SFC
GRAD TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDS TONITE AND SAT...FROM
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJV THRU THE TEHACHAPIS INTO THE KERN DESERTS
WITH A FEW AREAS BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE
SAT NITE AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND SFC PRESSURES RISE IN
THE GREAT BASIN. HEIGHTS SHOW A GRADUAL RECOVERY SUN AND MON. TEMPS
THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST DAY EXPECTED
SAT...THEN A SLOW REBOUND SUN AND MON. TEMPS SAT A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SHOW RATHER STRONG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS FALLS
ON THE ORDER OF 150 METERS BY SAT MORNING WHICH LED ME TO UNDERCUT
GFS MOS BY A FEW DEGS...BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. OTHER THAN A
FEW CLOUDS...MEMORIAL DAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF AND THE EXTENDED GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 5 WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE NRN CA REGION AND INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 3.
NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND ZONAL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5 AS EPAC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD.
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF
OF AK LOW NEAR 50N AND 140W WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP. THE GUIDANCE IS BRINGING
TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY 6 AND 7, THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON THE
DUE TO THE MEAN ENSEMBLE HEIGHTS ARE INDICATING THE LOW MAY BE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BY THIS TIME FRAME AND WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING,
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE HEIGHT RISES TO NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GFS IS
FORECASTING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. 50 TO 60 METER HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED
BETWEEN THE MODELS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO IN THE EXTENDED
BEYOND DAY 5. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY FLOOR WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 03Z. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT
AREA FORECAST POINTS. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF SATURDAY.FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE..KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM
SUNDAY FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

BINGHAM/JDB