Strong Wind in California, March 7 to 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 AM PST TUE MAR 7 2006

.UPDATE...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...AND RADAR SHOWS A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
INTO MERCED...MARIPOSA AND NORTHWESTERN FRESNO COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

THE WS-ETA HAS MODERATE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SURFACE COMPUTED CAPES UP TO 560 JOULES/KG OVER WESTERN TULARE
COUNTY AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH LIFTED INDEXES OF -2 AND 500-MB
TEMPERATURES OF -26 C. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE AREA FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND GIVEN THE FORECASTED PARAMETERS AND THE CONVECTION THAT
DID DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION TAPERED OFF OVER THE SIERRA
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED AROUND
YOSEMITE AND EVEN A FEW OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION PRETTY MUCH DONE FOR IN THE SIERRA...THE WSW WAS
CANCELLED AROUND 1 AM. THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE KERN DESERTS AND FAVORED
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TODAY AS THE APPROACHING IMPULSE PUSHES THROUGH
AND THE CURRENT MODERATE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP A BIT MORE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SNEAK BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHWEST US. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THRU SATURDAY AND BRING DEEP 50H LOW SWD
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CENTER IT OVER NORTHERN CA BY 00Z SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON AND BE COMPARABLE TO THE AIRMASS THAT SETTLED OVER OUR
CWA DURING MID TO LATE DECEMBER OF 1998. BY SATURDAY...1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 522 DM WITH 850 MB TEMPS BTWN
-6C AND -4C AND 500 MB TEMPS NR -35C. AS A RESULT...SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE LOW...RANGING FROM ABOUT 1K FT OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERNEV
TO NEAR 2K FT IN THE KERN CO MTNS. ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE UNSTABLE OVER THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD PM TSTMS
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY. IT WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE IF HEAVIER SHOWERS FELL IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW ON
THE SJ VLY FLOOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENED DURING THE LATE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING HRS OF DEC 20TH...1998 WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

NONETHELESS...TEMPS WILL BE UNREASONABLY COLD BY THE WEEKEND...
AVERAGING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA.
SUSPECT MOS GUIDANCE IS WEIGHING TOO HEAVILY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
IN LATER PERIODS...SO WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE THRU THE PERIOD. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
OFFERS SOME OPTIMISM IN THE PATTERN BY DAYS 6 AND 7 AND RUSHES THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AFTN. THE REMAINING SOLNS KEEP THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH IT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PRIOR TO THIS WEEKEND...ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODERATELY STRONG...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CORE OF THE 300 MB JET
FINALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY EVENING. HENCE...BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN CO
MTN PASSES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY IN ALL ZONES THRU SAT...THEN LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE
SJ VLY AND KERN CO DESERT SUNDAY AND FINALLY IN ALL ZONES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR CONTINUING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS THRU
12Z WED DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS. EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SJ VLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA THRU 12Z WED.  FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO
TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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