High Wind in California, March 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
405 PM PST SAT MAR 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM BRINGS CLOUDS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH CENTER OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS OF 23Z SAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. TROUGH HAS NOT
PRODUCED THE STRONG PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS THAT WERE EARLIER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
AND ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES INSTEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAIL. DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM HAVE GENERALLY REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND OVERALL THIS STILL ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTY. BY SUNDAY MORNING...TROUGH TO BE EAST OF THE
CWA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS TO
ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH AND DECREASE WINDS. COOLER TEMPS
LOOKED FOR ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. ON MONDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGE
TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING A WEAK RIPPLE
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FOR TUESDAY.
THIS RIPPLE FORECAST TO TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
APPEARS THAT ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
THOUGH THIS IS A PRECURSOR TO TUESDAY STORM. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. SYSTEM SHOWING GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WITH
INITIAL PW VALUES OVER 0.50 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH AN
ONSET AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH
APPEARS THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BY TUESDAY AM AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 7000 FEET
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...ODDS ARE ALSO IMPROVING THAT A DECENT RAIN EVENT MAY
PLAY OUT OVER REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA THRU TUESDAY NGT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTAINING MOISTURE OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN BEING SQUEEZED OUT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. SNOW
LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NW ARIZONA SHOULD
START OUT RATHER HIGH DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS BUT AGAIN...IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THIS MAY
FALL AS RAIN WITH THE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AFTER THE PRECIP BECOMES
LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY. BY THURSDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
MID WEEK AND REBOUND AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA CONTINUE NORTH OF THE LAS VEGAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR KDRA BETWEEN 09
AND 12Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KLAS THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...KBIH...KDAG...KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 14...15...16...17 UNTIL 10 PM PST.
      LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 21 UNTIL 10 PM PST.
.AZ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 36 UNTIL 11 PM MST.
      WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 1 UNTIL 11 PM MST.
.CA...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 26...27...28 UNTIL 10 PM PST.
      WINTER STORM WATCH ZONE 26 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
      MORNING.

JENSEN/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS