High Wind in California, March 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1014 AM PST TUE MAR 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER
STORM WILL IMPACT THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
AND OWENS VALLEY. REPORTS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE ARE BEING
RECEIVED FROM THE AREA AND DUST IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OVER THE
OWENS DRY LAKE BED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS CROSS-BARRIER FLOW INTENSIFIES AND LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH WEATHER OF INTEREST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY
SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION...WHICH WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SUBSTANTIAL STRATIFORM
RAIN. SORTING OUT THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
-RUNK-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CONCERN OF THE DAY IS DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THE
SIERRAS AND OWENS VALLEY. COAMPS...WRF...ET AL CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG CROSS-BARRIER FLOW...WITH A STABLE LAYER ABOVE RIDGETOP LEVEL
AND A LITTLE REVERSE WIND SHEAR WHICH MIGHT HELP GENERATE A SELF
INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. PREVIOUS SHIFT UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A WARNING AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE ONCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
CWFA BETWEEN 12Z TODAY AND 12Z TOMORROW...WITH A MAX EXPECTED IN THE
SIERRAS. ZONAL FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE SIERRAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY AND A LITTLE MORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FORECAST FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IS HIGH...HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL DISPLAYING QUITE A BIT
OF VARIABILITY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK. EURO/UKMET/GEM CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE IT EAST INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA OR SOUTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL TRACKS THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH...AND HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE EURO/GEM
SOLUTIONS...AND SINCE INHERITED POPS COVER THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY
WELL...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
PACKAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY THEN INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ALSO LOOKING FAIRLY WET. SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP FAIRLY LOW AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...AND MAY
DROP TO 4000 FEET OR LOWER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALSO ANTICIPATING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH ITS EVENTUAL TRACK WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL
BE OVER THE SIERRA AND ACROSS LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 10 BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN REBOUND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
PACIFIC.
&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BEATTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. OTHERWISE
TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREA TERMINALS.  SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT... KDRA... KBIH...
KDAG... KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...HIGH WIND WARNING CAZ026 6 AM TO 6 PM TODAY.

MORGAN/OROW

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