Damaging Wind in California, July 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW...BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY
SECTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR
CUT-OFF OF MOISTURE OVER EASTERN CLARK COUNTY AND INTO ARIZONA.
RADAR DID GO DOWN EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS
PROBLEM. USERS SHOULD READ RNOFTMESX FOR LATEST INFORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS INTERFACE BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY MID
LEVEL AIR LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER AND EXTENDING UP
INTO CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PAST WEEK AND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
TODAY. GREATEST POPS /CHANCE CATEGORY/ WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CWFA
WITH A GRADUAL TAPER TO THE SOUTHWEST. TOMORROW...THE MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A BAGGY TROUGH MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME DRYING. SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS
BECAUSE THE MODELS HAVE INSISTENTLY DRIED US OUT AT SOME POINT IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE PAST EIGHT DAYS...AND IT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET.
WILL GIVE THIS ONE AT LEAST SOME CREDENCE SINCE IT IS IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...AND SHOWED A DECREASING TREND WITH POPS TOMORROW...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. TROUGH SAGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH ON FRIDAY TO TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE MOISTURE SLOSHING BACK TO
THE WEST AGAIN. THUS...INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MOIST
AIR...WITH POINT FORECASTS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME STORMS NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...HIGH CENTER POSITIONED OVER NRN TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE FCST PERIOD...BUT SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A DRIER PATTERN BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS
STILL DEPICT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE CA COAST AND PULL IT ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY
LIMITED TO THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. 20 POPS CONFINED TO MOHAVE
COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINCOLN COUNTY ON
SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.  DECREASING POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A DRYING TREND...BUT WARY
THAT MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES OUT EXISTING MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY. MODELS
REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH TEMPS...SO LITTLE CHANGE THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...ALL CORRIDORS SHOULD BE FREE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN FORMING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY 18Z...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE MORMON
MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS. TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...
KVGT... KDRA... KBIH... KDAG... KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

BELL/MORGAN/KENNEDY

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS