Wildfire in California, July 22 to 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY FIRING UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC80
ANALYSIS SHOWS EVEN MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION UNDER AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS MODELS ALSO SHOW CAPE VALUES RISING TO
OVER +1500J/KG AGAIN TODAY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...WILL ONLY SEE
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AS
SEEN ON BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA WITH VALUES OF 1.4-1.7 INCHES
WILL ONLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON AS
LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES REACHED WELL INTO THE CENTURY MARK.
850MB TEMP/S EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 30 DEG-C THIS AFTERNOON... SO
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH 110 AND ABOVE. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGES IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL 850MB TEMP/S REACH ABOVE 32
DEG-C ON SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
IN NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUAL COOLING STARTS
ON MONDAY. WILL SEE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HOT TEMP/S
DURING THE SHORT TERM BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK TROF DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST ON
WED AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE NEAR 130W BY SATURDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT
BUT STILL REMAINING NEAR 100 OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERTS
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SHIFT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS EAST OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT THUNDERSTORM STILL TO REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT 06Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. DUE TO UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AIRPORTS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO
TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
     NEVADA FOOTHILLS...AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS UNTIL 9 PM
     SUNDAY.
 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
     SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
     EVENING.

&&

MOLINA/LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
521 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CAZ089>094-098-099-231200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
521 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY. SEE SFONPWHNX
/WWUS76 HNX/ FOR DETAILS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 115
IN MANY AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

CAZ095>097-231200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
521 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 900 PM TODAY. SEE
SFOFFAHNX /WGUS66 KHNX/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

BINGHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
609 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE WALKER PASS RAWS   35.64N 118.03W
07/22/2006                   KERN               CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RECIEVED A REPORT FROM THE STATION 78 IN PIUTE OF
            SIGNIFCANT FLOODING IN THE WALKER BASIN AREA. TIMES ARE
            ESTIMATED AND DETATILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

JBAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
757 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 S LAKE ISABELLA      35.47N 118.47W
07/22/2006  M1.60 INCH       KERN               CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IN BODFISH REPORTED 1.6 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 4PM
            TO 630 PM PDT.

&&

BARLOW