Tornado in Pennsylvania, July 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 AM SAT JUL 22 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST BUMPED UP TIMING OF
CATEGORICAL PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY JUST A BIT AHEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS TIMING.  RRM

ONE LOOK AT THE CURRENT NORTHEAST REGIONAL RADAR...AND WE ARE VERY
CONCERNED TODAY ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR ALREADY FLOOD
RAVAGED AREA. BROAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC FORCING EXISTS OVER AREA AHEAD
OF DIGGING UPR S/WV OVER GTLKS WITH SCT GULLYWASHERS ALREADY IN
PROGRESS ACROSS W-CNTRL NY. AREA OF MDT-HVY RAIN OVER CNTRL OH LINES
UP WELL WITH GFS DEPICTION OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING NORTH OF SFC
LOW PRES AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF POTENT MID-SUMMER UL
JET. THIS ENHANCED FORCING MOVES RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE MDLS STILL JOCKEYING
FOR POSITION OF AXIS OF HVY RAIN...WHICH TONIGHT HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z OR 18Z RUNS YDY. AT LEAST THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE OP RUNS THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF HVY
RAINFALL IN OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 21Z RUN OF SREF
ENSEMBLES SHOW 30 PERCENT OF MEMBERS THINK SC NY-NEPA WILL SEE MORE
THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY 03Z TONITE. GIVEN LATEST FRONTAL
POSITION AND AFORMENTIONED FORCING ALONG UPR FRONTS...WE WILL LEAN
WITH THE GFS POSITION OVER THE NYPENN BORDER VS THE WRF MDL FOCUS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE POCONOS. PWATS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND
FCST QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-2.5 INCH RANGE...BUT TSTMS EASILY
COULD DOUBLE THAT FOR SOME AREAS.

THE RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE EVENT AND ULTRA SENSITIVITY IN OUR
AREA TO FLOODING DICTATES THAT THIS IS NOW THE TIME FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA...ALTHOUGH THE LEAST
THREAT IS PROBABLY THE FINGER LAKES/WRN MHWK VALLEY. I DO NOT WANT
TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY THIS AREA THOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PSBL
THAT FAR NORTH LEADING TO LOCAL FLOOD PROBLEMS. RIVER MODELS SAY THE
MAIN STEMS CAN HANDLE THIS EVENT...AND IN GENERAL THAT MAY BE
BASICALLY TRUE...HOWEVER THE NOTORIOUSLY FLASHY HEADWATERS...AND
SOME OF THE OTHER LOW FLOOD STAGE ROUTED POINTS COULD GET INTO MINOR
FLOOD JEOPARDY IF HVY RAIN ELEMENTS DECIDE TO PICK ON THEIR LOCAL
RUNOFF BASINS.

THE LOW PASSES THROUGH NEPA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...
WHICH IS PROBABLY THE SILVER LINING OF THE EVENT IN THAT IT APPEARS
QUICK HITTING. DRIER AIR ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT STILL A FEW S/WVS TO ROTATE
AROUND UPPER LVL CYCLONIC FLOW. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE FOR CU
DEVELOPMENT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LVLS WILL HELP KEEP A CHECK
ON ANY SHOWERS...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS DOWN TO LOW CHC. SIMILAR DRY
TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE REFRESHING LESS HUMID AIR
INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

TEMPS TODAY STARTING OUT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE...SO WILL BUMP UP
NUMBERS JUST A BIT FROM MAV MOS. OTHERWISE...USED A RELIABLE BLEND
OF FWC/MAV THROUGH MONDAY. -JAB
&&

.AVIATION (22/06Z TO 23/06Z)...
VFR CIGS AND VFR TO MVFR VSBYS TO START. THE VSBYS ARE AROUND 5
MILES AT AVP AND ITH WITH ELM AND BGM FOLLOWING SOON. A BAND OF
SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFTING NE COULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
BRIEFLY BEFORE 12Z. ELM COULD AGAIN FALL TO IFR CIG AND VSBY IN FOG
AROUND 10Z.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING FROM SW TO NE THEN BECOMING
STEADY EARLY AFTN. HAVE GONE WITH MOS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.
A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF.

EAST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS WILL BACK TO NE TODAY AND INCREASE TO 5
TO 10 KTS. THIS EVENING N WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
&&

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES VERY NEAR TO ZONAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN TROF APPROACHES THE REGION WED INTO THURS. THE TROF IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPS
SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHERWISE THE PATTERN IS QUIET JUST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED AND THU. -JFC
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING ALL COUNTIES.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING ALL COUNTIES.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-230815-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
411 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS...SMALLER RIVERS AND
URBAN AREAS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA...SEE ALBFFABGM /WGUS61 KBGM/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING.

JAB