Hail in Arkansas, March 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH IS LIMITING THE INFLOW SOMEWHAT
YET AND SOME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DEW POINTS
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO MOVE INTO ALL AREAS. MORNING KLZK
RAOB SHOWED A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET AND THIS MAY LIMIT
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP TO DEVELOP AND STRONG LAPSE RATES
EXIST ABOVE THIS LEVEL SO A FEW HAILERS COULD DEVELOP FROM THAT.
BASED ON OBSERVED TEMPS AT 10 AM...RAISED MAXES ABOUT TWO DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT MORE WARMING TODAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER BUT SOME 10 AM TEMPS WERE GETTING WITHIN 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF
FORECAST MAXES AND THOSE COULD BE EXCEEDEED. STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA MAKES LAKE WIND ADVISORY JUSTIFIED ALTHOUGH THOSE
CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED EVERYWHERE YET. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PROBABLY THURSDAY ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. DEW POINT FORECASTS WAY
TOO LOW AND WERE ADJUSTED UP BASED ON OBSERVED DATA. STILL LOOKS
THREATENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST HAS SEVERE WORDING MENTIONED AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE HWO AND STRENGTHEN WORDING FOR SEVERE THREAT AS IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK SERIOUS. UPDATE WILL BE SENT TO CLEAR UP MORNING
WORDING AND MAKE UPDATE TO MAX FORECASTS.
&&
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.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER PATTERN KEEPS ON TRACK BASED ON WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY. LONG
WAVE TROF STARTS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND IT
GETS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THURSDAY. AT THAT
POINT THE TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND TAKES OFF FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 18Z THU AND 06Z FRI. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BACKING FROM 06Z FRI
THROUGH 00Z SAT...AND IT WILL STAY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM AS LARGE TROF CLAIMS A SPOT OVER THE WESTERN SECTION
OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
TURNS INTO AN ELONGATED TROF WITH A DOUBLE CENTER STRUCTURE FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HOLD OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTER PUSHES
INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW DOES PICK UP SPEED
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR PRESENCE
KNOWN OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE STATE WHILE DRY SURGE PUSHES
EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY 00Z FRI. DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EVENING WILL
SEE A QUICK RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE RIDING ON SOUTHEAST WINDS.
POPS WILL FINISH OUT THE SHORT TERM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE EVEN STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT H85 WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO PLAN TO HAVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL PERSIST THRU THE PD AND CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYS WL
CONT TO BE A FCST CHALLENGE. NEXT SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FA
SUN NGT AND MON. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC POPS ATTM DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
LATEST GFS ACTUALLY TAKE THE ASSOCD CDFNT THRU THE FA BY EARLY TUE
MRNG...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW. THE ASSOCD UPPER TROF IS
FCST TO PASS ACRS AR ON TUE...WITH SMALL RAIN CHCS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRES WL BLD INTO THE REGION FOR WED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  60  68  43 /  40  70  80  10
HARRISON AR       69  55  60  38 /  50  90 100  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  60  68  43 /  40  70  80  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  61  71  46 /  40  70  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  55  61  38 /  50  90 100  20
MONTICELLO AR     72  62  73  47 /  30  70  80  10
SEARCY AR         70  58  67  42 /  40  80  90  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  60  68  43 /  40  70  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  58  64  41 /  40  80  90  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-
ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-
ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-
ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-
ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1125 AM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AIR IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WEAK BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WHICH COULD EXCEED 70 MPH...WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO DANVILLE TO HOT SPRINGS TO GURDON.
THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT WILL BE GREATEST IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY LEAVING THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA OF
ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
IN THE NORTH.

UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS
OCCASIONALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH SYSTEM. TIMING IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IN THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE
URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES AND MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WHILE MOST PEOPLE WILL BE ASLEEP.
THIS WILL AFFECT WESTERN ARKANSAS THE MOST TONIGHT. USE OF NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COULD COME IN HANDY IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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