Winter Storm in Arkansas, February 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED. SEVERAL STATIONS
REPORTED AROUND ONE TENTH INCH PRECIP BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. MORE
PRECIP WILL TRAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKS
TO ME LIKE SOME AREAS WILL GET IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET. THUS HAVE UPGRADED SNOW ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 330 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER TEMPS IN THE 70S THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...READINGS THIS AFTN ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NELY SFC
WINDS CONT TO ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S/.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE THE ONSET OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP
TNGT OVR AR.

CONDS STILL SHAPING UP FOR A WINTER WX EPISODE ACRS THE FA STARTING
TNGT AND THRU MOST OF SAT. MOISTURE WL SURGE BACK NWD TNGT AS
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP ACRS THE AREA. LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO
BREAKOUT FROM THE W AND OVERSPREAD THE FA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO START
OFF OVR NRN AR...GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TNGT. LOOKING AT 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACRS NRN SECTIONS BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO INITIALLY START OFF AS RAIN OVR
CNTRL AND SRN AR. RAIN WILL GRAUDUALLY MIX WITH SLEET DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF EVAP COOLING ACRS CNTRL SECTIONS...WITH FRZG RAIN AND
SLEET EXPECTED AFT MIDNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS FALL AOB 32F. OVR SRN
SECTIONS...AIR TEMPS WL RMN ABV 32F FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...SO FRZG
RAIN THREAT WL BE TOWARD DAWN.

FRZG RAIN AND SLEET WL MAINLY FALL ON SAT ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PARTS OF SERN AR COULD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF ICING ON SAT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR CNTRL AND SRN AR FOR
LATER TNGT AND SAT.

PRECIP CHCS WL LESSEN SAT NGT AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS. DID LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR CONTINUITY ATTM. QPF
AMOUNTS WL BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

MIDDLE TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY...AND SLOWLY WARM MONDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS ON THE SECOND WAVE PROGGED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
QPF...AND THEREFORE WINTER PRECIP...TO THE CWA. 12Z MODELS SEEM TO
BE STEPPING BACK FROM THE SYSTEM NOW. MOISTURE RETURN ISN/T VERY
IMPRESSIVE....ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT A LITTLE BETTER IN THE SOUTH. MODEL GENERATED QPF
REMAINS LIGHT...FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMP PROFILES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED PRECIP AGAIN. I BACKED THE POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE 12Z MODELS LOOKING WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM. ONLY TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO MAXES ON MONDAY...WHICH WAS TO LOWER THEM A
FEW DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.  ALL PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO END ROUGHLY 6Z
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RATHER FEATURE LESS DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL
CONTINUE A FAST WESTERLY TO SSW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHORT
WAVE TRAVELING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE SURFACE
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HOLD MOST OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF ARKANSAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A LOW DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...GIVING A
SLIGHT PUSH NORTHWARD TO SOME OF THAT MOISTURE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREAS TO DRY US OUT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A HINT TO MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO THE STATE FRIDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW UNTIL MODELS GET A STEADY HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  19  30  26  36 /  30  20  50  40
HARRISON AR       11  26  20  33 /  20  20  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  27  37 /  30  20  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     20  32  28  38 /  30  20  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  10  25  20  33 /  20  20  50  30
MONTICELLO AR     22  34  29  40 /  30  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         17  29  24  35 /  30  20  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      19  30  27  36 /  30  20  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   20  29  23  34 /  30  20  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-
ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ016-ARZ021-
ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-
ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-
ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-
ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
930 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY HAS OVERSPREAD THE NATURAL STATE AND OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD
WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THIS SEASON IS WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN THE COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND. THE COLD AIR IS NOT VERY DEEP
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AREA WIDE WHICH WILL BE MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP...THE RESULTANT. WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE COLD AIR
IS MUCH DEEPER...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW DURING THE NIGHT.

AS A RESULT...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TONIGHT WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND A MIXTURE OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE NORTH. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY WHILE
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS ON THE STATE. THE SAME MIXED BAG OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO BE LIKELY IN THE
NORTH. SOME OF THAT SNOW WILL LIKELY REACH INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF
ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE LITTLE ROCK METROPOLITAN AREA.
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TREACHEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH. THE MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION DECREASING SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH
AND BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. WHILE THE MIXED BAG
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COMPLETELY END...THE  OVERALL CHANCES OF
WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE ON THE WANE. OVER THE SOUTH...FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SINKS TO
THE SOUTH.

THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL NOON WHERE A
TOTAL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM.

THE COLD AIR SHOULD START TO MODIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SPREAD BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AREAS
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND GO TO A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW.

BY LATE MONDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WHAT PRECIPITATION IS LEFT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN.

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT ICING
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
SEVERE AS THE ICE STORM OF DECEMBER 2000 BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SERIOUS DISRUPTION OF TRAVEL AND RESULT IN MANY POWER OUTAGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

56