Lightning Strike in Arkansas, August 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SHALLOW SFC FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NRN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE AREA. THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST...EVEN NORTH OF
THE FRONT...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE STATE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOST SHOULD DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOOKS AS IF AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF SE KS/SW MO OVERNIGHT
AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING.

THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEING TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...PUTTING THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FINALLY STARTS TO ARRIVE.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...ITS HARD TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW ITS
GOING TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF IS ACTUALLY
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE SINCE IT IS MAINLY A WINDSHIFT BOUNDARY...BUT
IT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST
LIKELY THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID/LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL BY LATE THURSDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FLATTENS OUT. THIS WILL USHER A COLD FRONT WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS COOLER AIR WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  95  73  92 /  20  30  20  30
HARRISON AR       69  89  65  86 /  40  30  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  98  73  93 /  20  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     75  96  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  68  87 /  40  30  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     74  97  75  93 /  20  20  20  30
SEARCY AR         75  94  71  91 /  30  30  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      74  97  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  95  71  92 /  30  30  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. PEOPLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST TOO MUCH EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTION OF ARKANSAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THOUGH IT IS LESS LIKELY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG...BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME
STRONG...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

38/22/57