Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FRONT ALREADY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF
MENA...CONWAY AND NEWPORT. PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN IN AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH A LOT OF HEAT AT THE SURFACE TO
ENHANCE DOWNBURSTS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION SETTLES DOWN. MODELS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS REVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE CLOSE TO
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANY STORMS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND
THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT DURING THE
SHORT TERM...BUT WOULD STILL CALL IT HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN COOLING WILL BE AT NIGHT WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE.

BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DRY/WARMER WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THIS WILL KEEP A FRONT OUT IN THE PLAINS
FROM MAKING ANY HEADWAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY...RIDGE MAY CONTRACT TOWARD THE WEST...ALLOWING THIS WEAK
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
THUS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL END THE LONG TERM. KEPT SMALL POPS
IN THE FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. (57)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  93  70  92 /  30  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       67  87  65  89 /  40  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  95  71  94 /  20  40  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  95  70  94 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  87  66  87 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  97  71  95 /  20  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         73  91  68  90 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  96  72  95 /  30  40  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  93  70  92 /  30  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ042-
ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-
ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRODUCING HEAT STRESS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE REACHING 105
DEGREES OR MORE...SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...HEATING MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...WITH
BRIEF...HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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