Hail in Arkansas, April 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED THUNDER FORECAST FOR HARRISON...AND
THEN HELD OFF IN OTHER TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z. LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WENT AHEAD AND CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AFTER SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND IN THE EAST FRIDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE WAS IN THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER
MAKER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WAA OCCURRING OVER ARKANSAS HAS
LED TO RISING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO INCREASING. KLZK RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA GENERALLY MOVING EAST. DRIER
AIR IS NOTED IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY MOVE INTO THIS AREA. LATEST RAOB SHOWS ONLY A 1 DEGREE CAP AT
ABOUT 6K FT. WITH THE WAA OCCURRING THIS MORNING DO NOT THINK IT
WILL TAKE LONG TO ERODE THE CAP TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 23Z AND
MOVE EASTWARD. MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE IS UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY.

THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FRIDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LOW HOWEVER...WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND MODELS AGREE THAT IT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH VERY DRY AIR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGE ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MINS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK AND
RAISING MINS INTO THE 50S WHICH IS NORMAL FOR APRIL. AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BUT NEVER MAKE IT. GFS HINTS AT AN AREA
OR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. PUT IN 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED THE SMALL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY BUT RIDGING
ALOFT RETURNS. THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE BUT IT MAY
PUT A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AT LEAST FOR AWHILE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-
ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-
ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-
ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-
ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
800 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE REST OF THE STATE IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE
VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT...THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LINES...AND MOVE QUICKLY
EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE ACROSS
ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
MONITOR LATER BULLETINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
THEIR AREA AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS THEIR
AREA.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING
WIND...AS THE STORMS LOOK TO FORM IN A LINE ONCE AGAIN...AND MOVE
QUICKLY EAST. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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