High Wind in Alaska, January 4 to 5, 2006

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED JAN 4 2006

.SHORT RANGE...THERE IS A STG L/W 300MB TROF ACRS THE GLF AK W/
CLSD LOW PROB INVOF 45-50N 150W WED MRNG.  THERE IS ALSO A SCNDRY
UPR LOW INVOF 45N 140W THAT WL PUSH RPDLY NWD OVR THE NERN GLF AK
THRU THU AFTN AND WKN.  THE ENTIRE L/W UPR TROF WL ALSO WKN THRU
THU AFTN THEN BGN TO MOV EWD RPDLY THU NGT AS STG ZONAL JET PUSHS
EWD UP STREAM RDG ACRS THE BERING SEA.

AT THE SFC THERE IS THE OLD LOW THAT IS MOVG WSWWD ACRS THE SRN
GLF AK.  THE ASSOCD FNTL SYS XTNDS EWD ACRS THE NRN GLF AK AND
OVR NRN SE AK.  THIS FNTL SYS WL CONT TO DRFT NWD AND DSIPT.
THE SNOW OVR THE N CNTRL PHNDL SHLD SPRD ON NWD OVR NRN SE AK
THRU WED AFTN.

THE NXT SYS ASSOCD W/ THE SCNDRY UPR LOW IS A CMPLX SYS AND WL
BE A VERY SGFNT SYS FOR SE AK.  THE NXT LOW WL PUSH NWD GENLY E
OF 140W OVR THE SERN GLF AK THRU THU MRNG.  AS THIS SYS MOVS NWD
THERE WL BE A SGFNT NLY AND NELY OUT-FLOW THAT WL DVLP OVR SE AK
WED EVENG AND WL INTNSFY THRU THU MRNG.

THE MAIN LOW FOR WED MRNG IS INVOF 45/140 W/ THE FNTL SYS XTNDG
FAR AHD TO NR 50N.  THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF A SCNDRY LOW DVLPG
INVOF OF THE TRPL PT AND THIS SCNDRY LOW IS TENDG TO MOV NWD
FASTR THAN THE MAIN LOW.  THE MDLS HAVE BACKD AWAY FM SGSTG AS
STG WNDS...AS EARLIER ON TUE...BUT STILL XPCT WNDS OVR ABV THE
50KT RANGE OVR SRN AND CSTL PHNDL THRU WED NTG.  AS THE FNTL SYS
PUSHG NWD XPCT RA TO DVLP OVR THE SRN PHNDL LATE WED EVENG AND
TO SPRD NWD THRU THU MRNG.  THE PCPN SHLD BE MXD OVR THE NRN CSTL
AREAS AND SNOW OVR THE NRN INNR CHNLS THU MRNG.

THE MDLS CONT TO HINT OF THE TWO LOWS ROTG ARND EACH OTHER OVR
THE GLF AK W/ THE LEAD SYS...PSBLY THE TRPL PT LOW...PULLING WWD
OVR THE SRN GLF AK AND THE MAIN LOW MOVG NWD ALNG THE OTR CST OF
SE AK THU.  AS THIS SCND LOW MOVS NWD THERE WL PROB A SCND BND OF
STG WNDS MOVG OVR THE SRN AND CSTL PHNDL THRU THU THAT MAY BE
STGR THAT THE FIRST LOW SYS.  THE MDLS SGST THAT THE WNDS WL BCM
SWLY BHND THIS LAST CNTR AND INCR ABV 50KT.  THIS CNTR WL ROT NWD
ALNG THE CSTL WTRS OF SE AK AND WKN THRU THU AFTN.  BY THU NGT
THE LEAD LOW WL CONT TO ROT BACK AGAIN AND MOV OVR THE SERN GLF
AK...BUT MUCH WKR.  THESE WNDS MAY BRIEFLY BE IN THE LOWR GALE
RANGE EARLY FRI MRNG.

.LONG RANGE...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MID-RANGE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TALKED ABOUT IN THE SHORT
RANGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WAS THE LEAD LOW AT FIRST...WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE ALONG WITH INCREASING THE WINDS TO
30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS OVER THE OUTER COAST MIGHT
INCREASE TO MIN GALES BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST AND INLAND JUST EAST OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH.

A UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG 50N BUT DIG TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
BY FRIDAY NEAR 50N/150W. THIS WILL BUILD A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS SOME OF THE SHOWERS BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SCATTERED UP NORTH.

A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ALONG 50N OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD A STRONGER UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE PANHANDLE TO BECOME DRIER AND MAY SEE SOME SUN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL KEEP THE UPPER FLOW
OFFSHORE.

THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE UPPER LOW  IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILT AND LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE
ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF FRONT MOVING OVER THE
FORECASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HI WND WARNG TNGT AND THU MRNG ZN 23...AND 27-29.
         WND ADV TNGT THRU THU ELSW

MARINE...STRMS WED EVENG 41 AND 36 SPRDG OVR 33...35...AND
         42-43 THRU THU MRNG.
         GALES ELSW.