Blizzard in Alaska, January 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
CONTINUES...HOWEVER A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS IN STORE. 12Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN. HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL MOISTURE ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AS SHOWN BY RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CORDOVA. IN THE WEST THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
THE DAY IS THE LARGE 967 MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE RAT ISLANDS THAT
IS PLODDING EAST ALONG 48N BRINGING GALES TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS DUE TO COLD
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SEA IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
REMAINS COLD AND DRY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS STILL IN PLACE OVER COOK INLET.

NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THE STABLE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WEST OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT
POINT WHEN IT GETS EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
INTO CANADA BY AN UPPER LOW THAT DROPS INTO NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE
BEAUFORT SEA. BY THURSDAY THAT UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA...BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. IN THE WEST THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE GETS REPLACED
BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA UPPER LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF AND SPAWN YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW. YET MORE SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS CONTINUES IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ACROSS THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE
MAIN LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.
ASIDE FROM CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT MAJOR STORM APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176

WOOD / BROWN