Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, January 21 to 23, 2006

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
327 PM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...ALASKA MAINLAND IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED BENEATH A DEVELOPING
500 MB TROUGH WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 496DM LOW NEAR DEADHORSE. A
WEAKENING RIDGE EXISTS OVER WESTERN CANADA WHILE A STRONGER 536DM
RIDGE EXISTS OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. MODELS ANTICIPATE THE TROUGH TO
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALTHOUGH ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN
DOMINATED BY LOW HEIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...ARCTIC AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND
AT 12Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS FROM SIBERIA EAST INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES
NORTH OF DEADHORSE WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THE MORE IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT WILL
BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AT 46N 173W AND IS
DEEPENING WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK
NORTHEAST AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ETA INITIALIZE WELL ALTHOUGH THE GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE 500 MB
TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG THE ALASKAN WEST COAST. MODELS MUCH MORE SIMILAR
TODAY WITH THEIR FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT APPROACHES
KODIAK ISLAND ON SATURDAY. GFS STILL PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST THAN THE ETA ALTHOUGH THE ETA HAS TRENDED NORTH AND WEST
SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS. FEELING HERE IS THAT WITH THE POORER
RESOLUTION OF THE GFS THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS
LIKELY OVERDONE BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS ZONE 222. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS IN ZONE 226. OUTSIDE OF THIS SNOW EVENT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD.

NORTH SLOPE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS IN ZONES 203 AND 204 WILL BRING WIND CHILLS TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEST COAST...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ZONE
210. OTHERWISE COLD AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT OUR WEST COAST ZONES.

INTERIOR...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
ALONG A PARL-PAFA-PAFK LINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST AND WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW. SNOW
WILL BE HEAVIEST IN ZONE 226 AND COMBINED WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
HAVE PROMPTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THIS ZONE. BY MONDAY
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ210.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.
&&

JMA JAN 06