High Wind in Alaska, February 7, 2006

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON FEB 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ANCHORAGE WILL LIFT
NORTHWEST AND OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW GETS PULLED BACK INTO THE BERING. THE STRONG WEATHER
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CANADA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST BIORKA RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY
WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED PASSED THE
YAKUTAT AREA AND THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL BE CANCELING THE WARNING AND ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 4 PM. WILL CANCEL THE REST OF THE HIGH WIND
WARNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
INLAND AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

AS FOR THE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS IN THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL...THE
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY UP INTO HAINES AND
ALONG THE HIGHWAY SO WILL CANCEL THAT WARNING. SKAGWAY IS STILL
WELL BELOW FREEZING AND DONT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SWITCH THE SOUTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROF LIFTS NORTH OF THEM. SO
WILL KEEP AND EXTEND THE WARNING UP THERE UNTIL 4 PM WITH SNOW
HEAVY AT TIMES AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6
INCHES.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. PAGY WILL MIXING WITH SNOW BUT BECOME ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE STRONG SOUTHERN WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OVER NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW RUNNING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE AND CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON THAT EVENING.
THE ORIGINS OF THIS SYSTEM IS FROM 40N SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOST AREAS WILL
BE ALL RAIN  AND IT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW COULD PULL ENOUGH COLD AIR
BACK IN FOR AND IS OF RAIN AND SNOW. PAYA MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH
PRECIP AS THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THEM AND THEY COULD
JUST SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND MIXED PRECIP
FOR THE REST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINS THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THAT NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY DAY BREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN AREA
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

.LONG RANGE...SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDERGOING CHANGE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS
AS STRONG HIGH ALONG PACIFIC COAST BUILDS NORTH AND RETROGRADES
WEST INTO GULF BY LATE WEEK. OLD LOW STILL IN NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. MODIFIED COLD AIRMASS
AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS GULF AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ENDING
WEDNESDAY AS 1036 MB HIGH PUSHES FROM SOUTHEAST GULF INTO
SOUTHERN YUKON THURSDAY MORNING. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL
DRIVE NORTH ALONG 150 W THURSDAY REACHING NORTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND AS 980 MB STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED STRONG WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH PANHANDLE. THIS DRAWS SOME COLD NORTH
WINDS INTO NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BUT MAINLY STORM FORCE WINDS
IN COASTAL WATERS TO LOCAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN OFF SHORE
WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EXPECTED FOR
EASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA THU/THU NIGHT
AHEAD OF FRONT GOING TO RAINY AND VERY WINDY FRIDAY. SOME SNOW
CHANGING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIND FOR NORTH CENTRAL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS
EXPECTED CENTRAL. SOUTHERN CORNER SHOULD MISS OUT ON PRECIP UNTIL
TRAILING FRONT DRAGS ACROSS PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER 965 MB LOW BARRELS INTO GULF FROM SW ON SATURDAY WITH
MORE RAIN AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A WARM 1045 MB MARITIME LOW MOVING NORTH INTO GULF BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING AKZ19 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
         WIND WARING FOR AKZ22-23-27 THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
         WIND ADVISORY AKZ17-20-21-24-25-26-28-29 THROUGH THE
          AFTERNOON
MARINE...GALE WANRING...ALL OUTSIDE WATER...AKZ22-21-33-34-35-36

ABJ/MM