Hail in Alabama, August 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
242 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOOKS LIKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM EAST OF DESTIN
INTO GEORGIA. ACTUAL FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTHWEST OF MOBILE WITH
THE LOWER DEW POINTS BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WHATS LEFT OF ERNESTO WAS MOVING UP
THROUGH FLORIDA AS FORECAST BY NHC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THINK ERNESTOS OUTER BANDS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF DESTIN AND DONT THINK
THESE WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AS THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF MY FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES. MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
BEFORE SUNSET AS ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH FAIRLY HIGH
MLCAPES. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EASES EAST BUT EXPECT
CLOUDS TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...WILL
ALSO LEAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY EVENING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
EASED EAST OF FORECAST AREA AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALL BUT DIMINISHED. WILL NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PNS AND GZH
MINS TONIGHT AND PNS TOMORROW NIGHT. A BIT COOLER(1F) TONIGHT AND
ABIT WARMER AT PNS TOMORROW NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND WARM WATER SHOULD
HOLD THEIR TEMPERATURE UP JUST A BIT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED BUT NEW 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE
INDICATED...MAY NEED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
EXTENDED ON THE MID SHIFT.

&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE BAY AND NEAR SHORE LATE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE FRONT EASES ACROSS.
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF A WEAKENING ERNESTO MAY ADD A FEW KNOTS TO
THE EASTERN LEG WINDS TONIGHT BUT OVERALL...ERNESTO WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON MARINE AREA. WINDS REMAINING WEST TO
NORTH...THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A WEAK SEA BREEZE
NEAR SHORE LATE IN THE AFTERNOONS. BY LATE SUNDAY...WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BUT GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  88  69  89 /  20  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  72  89 /  30  20  10  10
DESTIN      77  89  74  89 /  30  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   70  87  67  87 /  20  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  66  87  63  88 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN      69  90  65  89 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301700-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
550 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DUE
TO INCREASED DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

ALZ061-063-302145-
LOWER MOBILE-UPPER MOBILE-
356 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER MOBILE COUNTY...

AT 353 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF GRAND BAY...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...GRAND BAY...SEVEN
HILLS...SAINT ELMO...DAWES...I10 AND MCDONALD ROAD AND IRVINGTON
THROUGH 445 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.