Damaging Wind in Wyoming, July 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A CYCLONIC 85KT H3 JET MAXIMA AND ASSD H5
SHORTWAVE PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
WAVE RIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LEE SIDE TROFING ENSUES
INITIALLY...WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS GETTING GOING LATER ON. THE
LEE-SIDE TROF HAS TIGHTENED THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
PLACES...WITH THE WIND CORRIDOR EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST WINDS. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN MT ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THUS MAINTAINING THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
CAN INITIATE...ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS A DUBOIS TO
WORLAND TO KAYCEE LINE. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TOO
DRY/MIXED SOUTH OF THIS LINE FOR ANY ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY...WHERE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HAS POPPED A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS. THE FRONT WILL
BACK INTO JOHNSON COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. BOTH 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
DRYING LOW LEVELS OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE.
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS ACROSS ALL LOCALES
TOMORROW. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL NATURAL FIREWORKS FOR
THE FOURTH. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ON TUESDAY...WARMING
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND STABILIZING THINGS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF H7 CAA (2-3C) WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO DEVELOP A FLAT...WARM RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY SHARPENING UP SOME LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PUT THE CLAMPS ON CONVECTION
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND BECOMING VERY
WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST WITH 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S OUT WEST. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH 60S IN THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS. POSSIBLE RING
OF FIRE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NOT SURE IF THIS MOISTURE WILL COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC OR
EVENTUALLY FROM THE SOUTH WHERE POSSIBLE 4-CORNERS HIGH SETS UP.
EITHER WAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EXACTLY HOW THIS DEVELOPS AS TO WHERE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM....SKRBAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
224 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2005

WYZ001>020-022>030-031100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
224 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. TRAVELLERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG CROSSWINDS...
ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE OR TOWING A TRAILER.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST WYOMING
MOUNTAINS AND BIGHORN BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS AND STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TRIW