Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, July 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1230 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...AT 18Z SFC MAP SHOWS WK TROF OF LW PRES OVR NRN HIGH
PLAINS. S/W MVG INTO WRN WY/MT AT 18Z WL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND CAUSE AN INC IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACRS FA. STG OMEGA DVLPS FM
21Z-00Z FM HARDING COUNTY SOUTH THRU CENTRAL BLK HLS. MLCAPE INCRS
TO 800-1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA BY 21Z...THUS...EXPECT TSTMS ACTIVITY
NEAR BIG HORNS AND WRN CAMPBELL COUNTY TO INC AS THEY REACH THIS
AREA. THESE STORMS SHLD MV EAST THRU EVENING HRS. AS STORMS MV EAST
THEY WILL MV INTO ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...STG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR. WOULD EXPECT SUPERCELL STORMS ON PLAINS
THIS AFT AND EVENING...ESP ALONG AND EAST OF LINE FM BUFFALO-WALL-
-MARTIN WITH LARGE HAILS AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN PROBLEM. FARTHER TO
WEST EXPECT MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF SVR WX.

CDFNT WL MV THRU THIS EVENING...PUSHING TSTM ACTIVITY TO EAST WITH
IT. ON SUNDAY...COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH BRISK NW WINDS. A
WK S/W WL MV ACRS FA...BUT WL GO DRY NOW OVR ALL BUT SRN FA WHERE
BEST MSTR/INSTABILITY WL BE. ON SUN NIGHT...LLVL JET AND SOME
THETA-E ADV MAY LEAD TO SCT TSTMS IN SWRN AND S-CENT SD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE...EXPECT INDEPENDENCE DAY TO BY DAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

BY TUES RETURN FLOW WL HAVE BROUGHT MORE MOISTURE BACK TO REGION AND
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CHC OF TSTMS ON
TUES AFT/EVENING AS ANOTHER S/W MVS ACRS FA.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. A FEW WEAK S/W MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK...
BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER REMAINING PARTS OF
THE TWEB RTES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
KRAP. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 AM MDT SAT JUL 2 2005

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-031230-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1041 AM MDT (1141 AM CDT) SAT JUL 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY. THE TROF...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BUFFALO TO WALL TO MARTIN. HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
550 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             4 ESE FAITH             44.99N 101.96W
07/02/2005  1.75 INCH        ZIEBACH            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LCZEPYHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
557 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W LIGHTNING FLAT      44.99N 105.20W
07/02/2005  62 MPH           CAMPBELL           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LCZEPYHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
617 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NE ROCKYPOINT         44.98N 104.98W
07/02/2005  80 MPH           CROOK              WY   PUBLIC

&&

LCZEPYHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
629 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 N HULETT             44.91N 104.60W
07/02/2005  70 MPH           CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LCZEPYHA

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