Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, June 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...CURRENT UPR PATTERN WITH TROF OVER THE W AND RIDGE IN THE E
WL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WK THEN TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS NR THE COASTS. THE RISK OF
TSTMS...AND SVR WX...WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SW UPR FLOW
MAINTAINS A FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. PCPN CHCS WL CONT INTO
NEXT WK AS UPR SYSTEM LINGERS ACRS THE AREA WHILE THE PATTERN CHG
OCCURS. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND DRIER WX BY LATE NEXT WK/THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS UPR FLOW BECOMES NWLY.

.SYNOPSIS...YDA MORNING THERE WAS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE FCST
AREA WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE JUST S OF THE RGN.
THE MOISTURE RETURNED NWD INTO THE FCST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER
DESTASTABILIZED THE AIR. THAT AIR MASS INTERACTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACRS
THE AREA AND THE TAIL OF A SHRTWV LIFTG NNEWD W OF THE FCST AREA TO
PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SVR WX.

FRONT STILL LINGERING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WAS NOW ESTABILISHED ACRS THE AREA. SFC PLOTS AND THE 00Z
RAOBS SUGGESTED THAT THE AIR TO THE S WON/T BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YDA.
IT LIKELY WON/T BE VERY WELL CAPPED EITHER...SO THAT WOULD FAVOR MORE
SCT TSTM ACTIVITY TDA...AND A LESSER THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SVR WX. SVR
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER. THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE SPC DY1 SLGT
RISK OF SVR WX...AND THAT SEEMED REASONABLE. THE MORE TROPICAL AIR WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

EXPECT THE SCT STORMS TO CONT INTO TNGT AND THEN DIMINISH. THE MODELS
HINTED AT A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE SITN FOR PCPN SUN...AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE N. NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO REMOVE PCPN FM THE
FCST YET. STILL SEEMS THAT WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD YIELD
SCT AFTN TSTMS. STUCK WITH LOW CHC POPS.

SHRTWV AMPLIFYING IN THE PLAINS SUN NGT/MON LIKELY TO CLOSE OFF AS THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHG GETS UNDERWAY. CLOSED UPR LOW SHOULD THEN WORK
EWD AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO ESTABLISH THE NEW EASTERN NOAM UPR TROF. THE
MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CHANGING
LARGE SCALE PATTERN...AND OFFERED WIDELY VARYING SOLNS ON THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WORKS BEST IN SUCH SITNS.
CONTD CHC OF TSTMS INTO MID-WK...THEN LINGERED JUST SHRA FOR A TIME AS
THE FCST AREA WL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MID-WK. TRENDED TEMPS
DOWNWARD BY MID-WK. ERN NOAM TROF SHOULD BE WELL ENOUGH ESTABLISHED BY
LATE IN THE WK TO ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH TO BUILD SWD FM HUDSON BAY. TOOK
TEMPS BACK TO AT OR A BIT BLO NORMAL LEVELS...AND WENT WITH A DRY FCST
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SKOWRONSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-121715-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BE SURE
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WHICH WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO
DEFINE THE TIMES AND LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF ACTIVATION
WOULD BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-121715-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE LAKE WILL CAUSE PATCHY FOG
FORMATION WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BE SURE
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WHICH WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO
DEFINE THE TIMES AND LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TE
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
140 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

WIZ030-035-036-045-120000-
MARATHON-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUSHARA-
INCLUDING WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT AND WAUTOMA
140 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PART OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 459 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

MARATHON...
WOOD...
PORTAGE...
WAUSHARA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY