Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, June 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND KGAG TO JUST WEST OF KAMA AND THEN TO
NEAR PORTALES NM.  DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NM NEAR PORTALES
SOUTHWARD.  CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND KRTN SOUTH
TO NEAR KSRR OR SANTA ROSA NM.  LOW CLOUDS HUNG IN LONGER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  FEEL ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES RATHER THAN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BETWEEN KAMA
AND KLBB AND ALSO BETWEEEN KAMA AND KGAG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST
CHANCES THOUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND LOW LEVEL
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY JET SETS UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  THUS...INTRODUCED
POPS IN THE SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS INSTEAD OF THE ZERO POPS PREVIOUSLY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY...MAY SEE CONVECTION BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM KICKS THE
DRYLINE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH BUMPED THEM UP SLIGHTLY.  LEFT TEMPS AND
DEW POINT GRIDS ALONE EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR TWEAKING.  ANY MINOR
CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE IN THE DAYS 1 TO 3 PERIOD AND LEFT LATER
PERIODS ALONE.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN RETURNING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS
MAY CAUSE CONVECTION TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT OF CO AND NM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS EARLY.  WILL LEAVE POP GRIDS ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  86  60  84 /  40  30  30   0
BEAVER OK                  64  81  63  85 /  40  40  40   0
BOISE CITY OK              57  80  57  83 /  40  20  20   0
BORGER TX                  66  85  64  86 /  40  30  30   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  86  59  86 /  40  20  20   0
CANYON TX                  61  87  59  85 /  40  30  30   0
CLARENDON TX               65  88  64  87 /  40  30  30   0
DALHART TX                 59  83  58  84 /  40  20  20   0
GUYMON OK                  62  81  60  85 /  40  30  30   0
HEREFORD TX                61  87  59  87 /  40  20  20   0
LIPSCOMB TX                65  83  63  86 /  40  40  40   0
PAMPA TX                   65  85  64  85 /  40  30  30   0
SHAMROCK TX                66  88  67  88 /  40  40  40   0
WELLINGTON TX              66  90  67  89 /  40  40  40   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

13/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-121100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 460 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...THIS EVENING...AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
POSE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY.

SLATTERY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
436 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

TXZ012-112230-
POTTER-RANDALL-
436 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF BUSHLAND AT 430 PM CDT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AMARILLO CITY LIMITS AND AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN
POTTER COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM CDT.  THE STORM HOWEVER...COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER BOYS RANCH ROAD NEAR VALLEY DE ORO. DIME SIZE
HAIL...45 MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SP