Damaging Wind in Wisconsin, June 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 2 PM HAD A STALLED WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH WESTERN WI. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR LA CROSSE...EASTWARD TO NEAR OSHKOSH. AREA
OF STRONG CONVECTION FORMED AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENT
AREAS AND HAS SINCE MOVED INTO CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE
SATELLITE WAS SHOWING A VERY COMPACT MVC HEADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN AT THIS TIME. MORE SCATTERED SHRA/TS FIRING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST MN.

12Z 10JUN05 GFS/NAM BOTH AGREE ON NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR WEST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS AS
FAR AS SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AND QPF PRODUCTION. NAM DOING SOMEWHAT
BETTER IN THE DETAILS INITIALLY...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS SOLUTION.

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTERACTING WITH LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ANTICIPATED MVC ADVECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM MO...WILL
CARRY OCCASIONAL SHRA/TS. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK
WIND SHEAR PROFILE OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FIRE TONIGHT
SHOULD BE OF PULSE NATURE. SO MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS/SMALL HAIL.

SATURDAY LOOKS BETTER FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON CAPES INCREASE
INTO THE 2000-2500J/KG AS THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO
30-35KT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASED SHRA/TS
CHANCE TO LIKELY BASED ON THIS.

SHRA/TS THREAT CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INTERIM RIDGE IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA...DIMINISHING CHANCES OF SHRA/TS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM FROM FRONT THIS FEATURE PUSHES
NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN IL BY MONDAY MORNING. IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INDICATED INTO THE FRONT. COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION REACHING INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...NAM INDICATING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER IA WITH WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VARIANCE CONTINUES IN THE DETAILS WITH GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.
ALL DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHRA/TS. DGEX/GFS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TS ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA BASED ON THIS. UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THEN GETS SQUEEZED
EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-111100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING WITH IT ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH EACH PASSING
DISTURBANCE...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SOME OF THESE
MAY ALSO BE SEVERE. IN ADDITION...FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IF
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE