Heavy Snow in Wisconsin, December 14 to 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHARP NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF PIVOTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AS A 100+ KT UPPER JET PUNCHED INTO SW MISSOURI. AT THE
SFC...STG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NE ND...WITH A WEAKER
CIRCULATION NOTED OVER EASTERN KS. STG RETURN FLOW WAS ONGOING ACROSS
WI. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW SPREADING INTO
THE WSTRN GREAT LKS REGION...WITH SFC OBS SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE
APPROACHING OUR SW COUNTIES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...AND SHOW LIGHT
SNOW OVERSPREADING C/NE WI THIS MORNING AS THE LEAD S/W TROF MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME HEAVIER THIS AFT/EVG AS A STRONGER VORT
APPROACHES AND THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET IMPACTS THE RGN. SIGNIFICANT
WAA/ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR...ESP IN NE/EC WI. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
CORE OF STRONGEST LIFT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL WI THIS AFT...THEN SHIFT
INTO NE/EC WI DURING THE LATE AFT AND EVG. NAM QPF TOTALS ARE
PREFERRED...AS THEY DEPICT THE MAX QPF OVER NE WI...WHERE STG SE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE S/W TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE RGN. THE DRY SLOT
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY SHALLOWING OUT
THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE
ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY (AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES) FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES...
WHICH ARE FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE STG DYNAMICS. THE REST OF C/NE WI
WILL HAVE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS (AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6-10 INCHES,
HEAVIEST IN FAR NE WI)...EXCEPT ALONG THE LKSHR...WHERE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW ACCUMS AND BLOWING
SNOW. START AND END TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMODATE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED TRENDS.

HAVE REDUCED POPS ON THURS...AS THE DRY SLOT LINGERS OVER THE RGN DURING
THE MORNING. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LGT SNOW ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE FA...AND CHC POPS FOR LGT SNOW...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
SE PART OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT TUE. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WL BE SNOW CHCS WHILE LATTER PDS TO SEE TEMPS AS THE BIGGEST
FCST PBLM.

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM REMAINS LOCKED OVR WI INTO THU NGT ALBEIT
WEAKENING WITH TIME AS BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL SHRTWVS ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW WL KEEP LGT
SNOW OR FLURRIES GOING OVRNGT SO HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS ALONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT AN INCH OR LESS AS BEST MSTR LONG GONE BY
THEN. SYSTEM CONTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON FRI.
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND SHEARING SHRTWV TROF STILL IN OUR VCNTY...
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. WNDS APR TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY LK EFFECT OVR NRN WI AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20S AS COLDEST AIR HOLDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGS.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVR THE RGN INTO FRI NGT AS THE CORE OF THE BROAD
UPR TROF HOLDS OVR THE GREAT LKS. WNDS TURN MORE W-NW DURING THE NGT
WHICH MAY BRING LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TOWARD NRN WI. TRAJS ARE NOT YET
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THUS HAVE LEFT ONLY A SML POP FOR
NOW. ENUF CLDS AROUND TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM TANKING FRI NGT BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT THE MEX GUID BY AT LEAST 5 DEGS.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED INTO SAT AS AN UPR RDG IS ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE UPR TROF EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HI PRES WL START TO BUILD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. PROXIMITY OF THE UPR TROF STILL DICTATES A
SML CHC OF LGT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES THRU SAT. COLDER AIR ALOFT
SETTLING IN OVR WI TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE HI
PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. WNDS MAY TURN NW JUST ENUF TO ALLOW LK EFFECT TO IMPACT NRN
WI ON SUNDAY. TRAJS STILL NOT IDEAL AND WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN...AMTS
LOOK MINOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL BE THE TOUGH PART OF THE FCST DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE. HARD TO SEE READINGS ANYWHERE NEAR MEX
GUID SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW CVR. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MEX
GUID BY A SOLID 5 DEGS.

HI PRES SETS UP SHOP OVR THE RGN ON MON WITH VERY COLD BUT QUIET
CONDITIONS. THE WEST COAST UPR RDG SHARPENS BY NXT TUE AS NXT ARCTIC
SURGE GATHERS OVR CANADA. NE WI STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETREATING
HI PRES...THUS DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY SNOW WARNING 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WIZ038-039-048-049-

WINTER STORM WARNING 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WIZ040-050-

HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WIZ030-031-035>037-045-

HEAVY SNOW WARNING 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM THURSDAY
WIZ011>013-019>021-073-074-

SNOW ADVISORY 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM THURSDAY
WIZ005-010-018-

WINTER STORM WARNING 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM THURSDAY
WIZ022-
&&

KIECKBUSCH/KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

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