Cold in Pennsylvania, December 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR,
AND IT ENDS WITH THE BEGINNING OF WHAT MIGHT BE A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT FOR OUR NWRN FA.

STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA FROM ERN CANADA
TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AS ONE
MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA AND ALSO OVER THE NORMALLY
SHELTERED AREAS LIKE THE PINE BARRENS. SKIES FORECAST TO BE CLEAR.
WITH DEWPOINTS WHERE THEY ARE NOW, MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT INLAND. PUT A SIGNFICANT DISCONTINUITY
IN TEMPS BETWEEN INLAND LOCATIONS AND COASTAL ZONES BECAUSE OF
WATER TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH INLAND SO THAT WIND CHILLS
WILL NOT BE A LOT LOWER THAN THE TEMPS.

NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED TOMORROW
VIS A VIS TODAY. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US, AND THIS IS
EXACTLY THE WRONG TIME OF YEAR TO EXPECT MUCH AIR MASS
MODIFICATIONS. BASICALLY, STILL LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES, ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN AREAS BEFORE DUSK.

AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH WED NIGHT, AND AN
INCREASE AND SOME THICKENING IN CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH. STILL NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FLOW, SO THE FURTHER NORTH
ONE GOES THE MORE LIKELY THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATING. TRIED TO
SHOW THAT IN THE MIN TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N.

WE FAVOR THE GFS OVER THE NAM FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT, WHICH GETS
UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH
AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND MOVES
TOWARD US. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL ZONES, WITH ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL IN THE NORTH FALLING
AS SNOW. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DECENT SERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FLOW AT H9 AND H8 PROGGED TO REACH OR EXCEED 50 KTS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. H5 TROF PROGGED TO TILT
NEGATIVE AS IT ROTATES THROUGH ON FRI. SURGE OF RELATIVELY MILD
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP FROM FROZEN TO
SOMETHING ELSE THU NIGHT. PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD AIR MIGHT BE
STUBBORN TO LEAVE THE NWRN PART OF THE FA ACCORDING TO THE MAV
STAT GUIDANCE. THE NAM STAT GUIDANCE IS LESS OMINOUS AND HAS SOMEWHAT
OF A BETTER SURFACE EXPOSURE TO THE OCEAN IN THE NW, AND GIVEN THE
WIND ABOVE THE SURFACE IT MIGHT EVEN BE RIGHT, BUT THE NAM IS
RUNNING A TAD FURTHER INLAND WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND WOULD RATHER NOT FAVOR IT AT THIS TIME. WE THEREFORE ARE
CARRYING AT LEAST SOME ICE IN THE NW THU NIGHT. RAIN ELSEWHERE.
THIS FCST IS, OF COURSE, PERISHABLE.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES, GIVEN THE NEG TILT TROF, FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS INCREASINGLY MAY START TO SHOW UP IN OUR
PRODUCTS. IT IS ALREADY SHOWING IN THE CWF. AFTER THIS SYSTEM,
NOTHING THAT WE CAN DEFINITELY HANG OUR HATS ON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW AC AND CI, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING NIGHT ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SINCE THEY ARE ALREADY
UP, WE WILL LEAVE THEM UP. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AHEAD OF THE
STORM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THE STORM PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY, WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS AND
SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ431-450>455 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...NYY
LONG TERM...GIZOT
AVIATION/MARINE...RPW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-140945-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
431 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD AIR WILL COVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. A WINTRY MIX
SHOULD OCCUR FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING, HOWEVER, A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN SHOULD OCCUR LATER THURSDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE DURING THIS EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

EBERWINE