Hail in West Virginia, March 23, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

.AVIATION...

SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.  MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY
AND EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.  PKB SHOULD REMAIN IN
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THEY ARE IN THE COLD
AIR...WHILE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1015 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF LOWS...ONE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE OTHER OVER EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LARGE CLEARING AREA
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE
UP THE MOUNTAINS IN WAKE OF UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING STRATIFORM
RAINS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AND COLD POOL ALOFT INTERACTION
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.  LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT AND SPC HAS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING...BUT
THEN BRING LIKELY POPS AND CLOUDS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AS LINES OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.  ALSO WARMED UP TEMPERATURES
IN AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE CLEARING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 615 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005)

AVIATION...
A MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST LOCATIONS.  IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE FEATURE MOVES AWAY.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND IT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IFR CIGS SPREADING REGIONWIDE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 409 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND DAY 3.  UKMET AND
CANADIAN SLOWER IN MOVING LOW ACROSS REGION OVER WEEKEND.  THESE
MODELS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON FEATURES LATELY SO CONTINUED WITH
THIS TREND AS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT.  IT WAS NOTED THAT THE LATEST RUN
OF THE CANADIAN HOWEVER DIFFERED FROM THE UKMET.  BASED ON THESE
DIFFERENCES DECIDED TO STICK WITH ON-GOING FORECAST AND ONLY MAKE
SOME TWEAKS IN BASICALLY TEMPS/POPS.  AFTER THIS WEEKEND WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

WVZ024-231830-
MINGO WV-
1241 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR MINGO COUNTY...

AT 1241 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLIAMSON...OR ABOUT 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  THIS
STORM WILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RED
JACKET...MATEWAN...DELBARTON AND CHATTAROY.

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