High Wind in Florida, March 23, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
512 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

WILL BE UPDATING ZONES AND COASTAL MARINE FORECASTS SHORTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH BOX #75 VALID UNTIL 11 AM
EST. PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI)...GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING...BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH
RESPECT TO 88D RETURN...SO WILL FAVOR. DEEP UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
THEN CLEARING THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM CEDAR KEY SWWD OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THE REST OF THE MORNING...
AFFECTING THE NATURE COAST THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THEN FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND POINTS SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MODEST MID LEVEL WIND FLOW AND COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS (-13C AT 50H) LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UPPER SUPPORT AND ATTENDANT WIND FIELDS WILL LIFT
OUT TO THE NE WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND POPS
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS FOR POPS WILL ADVERTISE 60% FROM
THE NATURE COAST NORTH...AND 50% ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MOST ZONES EARLY
IN THE EVENING THEN THEY WILL END AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS WITH
READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND 80 FAR SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW AROUND IT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A FEW TSTMS
DEVELOPING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP 20% POP MENTION IN
PLACE AND WILL ADD ISOLATED TSTM MENTION INTO THE GRIDS. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW.

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT - TUE)...SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE CLOSEST TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 POPS THERE WHILE REST
OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SILENT 10 POPS FOR POSSIBILITY OF VERY
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE/AIR MASS TYPE SHOWERS.

HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCE COME INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY AS GFS SUGGEST A
STRONG LOW WILL MOVE BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OHIO WHILE THE DGEX
HAS A LOW GETTING ORGANIZED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR LOUISIANA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WHEN AND
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO GFS SINCE THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.
THIS WILL BRING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER SUNDAY EVENING...THEN INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE DGEX IS SLOWER...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS NOT ARRIVING IN THE NORTH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AND
THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES AND THE GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME...I WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH GAS TO PUSH ENTIRELY
THROUGH THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING...SO DECREASING CLOUDS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH WITH A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.MARINE...PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
WITH SEAS IN THE 4-5 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING INTO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN CURRENT WIND/SEAS TRENDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR TSTMS WILL MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS
ALL WATERS IN THE 430 AM PACKAGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH NO ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL PRECLUDE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. ON THURSDAY DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO HOURS OF RHS 35%
OVER INTERIOR LEVY AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES...BUT NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVEL ONCE AGAIN WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78 61 78 65/ 50 00 00 00
FMY  83 66 84 65/ 50 20 00 00
GIF  81 60 82 64/ 50 00 00 00
SRQ  78 62 78 65/ 50 00 00 00
BKV  78 53 79 58/ 60 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
 OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
 TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST FOR CITRUS...SUMTER...PASCO...PINELLAS
 PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...POLK...AND HARDEE
 COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE
 RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM....JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
546 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231600-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
546 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND MODEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING GOOD SHEAR...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL... AND BRIEF TORNADOES. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WINDS IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH BOATING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
309 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

FLZ042-230830-
CITRUS-
309 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CITRUS
COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT
HOMOSASSA SPRING...CRYSTAL RIVER...CITRUS SPRINGS...AND BEVERLY
HILLS...UNTIL 330 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

FLZ042-043-048>052-055-056-060-GMZ830-850-853-231600-
CITRUS-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER-
520 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 75 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PASCO...
SUMTER...CITRUS...HILLSBOROUGH...SARASOTA...HERNANDO...POLK...
HARDEE...PINELLAS AND MANATEE COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20NM.

A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ...WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY.  IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM