Flood in Washington, January 18 to 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
230 PM PST TUE JAN 18 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE LADEN FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH...
AND LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. SOME COLD AIR WILL LINGER FROM THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TO THE LOWER BASIN...WHICH WILL YIELD TO STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
DOWN-SLOPING OFF OF THE WALLOWS WILL KEEP THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES
MILD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAINS STRONG. WILL
DOWN-GRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NIGHT IN
THE GRAND RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THURSDAY AS A
VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROUGH RIPPLES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT BULK OF
THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION...YET
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP DRY OUT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE ALOFT REBUILDS AGAIN. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
THE WEST COAST OF OR/WA BY LATE FRIDAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP. RFOX.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON RECHARGING THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WOULD HAVE THE BEST POPS IN THE
NORTH AND DECREASING SOUTHWARD.  RIDGE THEN BUILDS SHUNTING MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA.  ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH FLATTENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO BRING A
RENEWED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT POPS
LOW FOR NOW.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THE SNOW
LEVELS SOMEWHAT BUT LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PENDLETON (AIRPORT) 043 060 041 050 / 005 005 005 020
WALLA WALLA         044 058 041 050 / 005 005 005 020
TRI-CITIES          038 049 039 050 / 005 005 005 010
YAKIMA              034 049 037 049 / 010 005 005 020
HERMISTON           038 050 039 050 / 005 005 005 010
ELLENSBURG          031 045 034 045 / 020 005 005 020
REDMOND             035 058 036 052 / 005 010 005 020
LA GRANDE           039 050 038 048 / 005 005 005 010
JOHN DAY            038 054 035 054 / 005 005 005 010
THE DALLES          038 054 041 051 / 005 010 005 030
&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND RONDE VALLEY TONIGHT...
WA...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
     FOR KITTITAS VALLEY TONIGHT..
&&

TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
355 PM PST TUE JAN 18 2005

ORZ041>050-WAZ024>030-191300-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-CENTRAL OREGON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS-BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
JOHN DAY VALLEY-OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-EAST COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
WALLOWA COUNTY-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
EAST SLOPES SOUTHERN CASCADES-
355 PM PST TUE JAN 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS
     GRANDE RONDE VALLEY

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE BASE OF LADD AND PYLES CANYON WILL BE
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. SEE THE
LATEST PDXNPWPDT OR WWUS76 KPDT FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

FLOOD
    KITTITAS VALLEY

WARM TEMPERATURES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET ALONG WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING
BETWEEN FROM CLE ELUM TO SNOQUALMIE PASS. STANDING WATER WILL BE
FOUND ON ROADWAYS...WHILE LOCAL STREAMS ESPECIALLY OF THE NACHES AND
YAKIMA RIVERS...WILL SEE MINOR FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST PDXFLSPDT OR
WGUS86 KPDT FOR THE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN KEEPING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND
WEST OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PROTOTYPE GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/FORECAST/HWOGRAPHICS/HWOGRAPHICS.PHP

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE G IN
HWOGRAPHICS AND THE G IN HWOGRAPHICS.PHP.