Cold in Vermont, January 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
938 PM EST MON JAN 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO LIMIT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN.  WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...BUT
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR LATER
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END.  PLENTY OF CLEARING
TO TAKE PLACE AND WILL EVENTUALLY SEE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS STILL ON
TRACK AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND SHOULD REACH FORECASTED LEVELS OF
BELOW ZERO READINGS.  NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ENHANCE
WIND CHILL VALUES.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY AS DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 440 PM...
.SHORT TERM...
ADDED A THROUGH THIS EVENING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOWS
GOING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT CATEGORICAL IN
NATURE.  REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 355 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THRU
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE/TUES. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SEWRD ACRS GRTLKS INTO FA.

THE MAIN WX PROBLEM TON/TUE WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NW VT.

LATEST RADAR PICS AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SNOW SHWRS
ACRS FA...WITH THE FAVORED AREAS BEING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND ACRS THE HIR TRRN. LES BANDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN RMN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GOOD LLVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH WEAK INVERSION THEN DEVELOPING OVRNGHT. BANDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS PM...AND EXPECT THIS TO RMN THE CASE
TONITE AS LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTH...LIMITING
FETCH OVER THE LAKE. SOME ORAGRAPHIC SNOW SHWRS PSBL TONITE AS
WELL...ESPEC ACRS NRN VT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO FA TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER RGN ON
TUES. COMBINATION OF NW WNDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY OR
WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FOR LATER TONITE THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH WARNINGS FOR ADRNDKS AND ST LWR VLY...AND
ADVISORIES FOR REST OF FA.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACRS FA DURING TUES...WNDS WL SUBSIDE DURING
PMAND SUNSHINE WILL BECOME PLENTIFUL. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ZERO ACRS NRN ZONES...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA TUES NITE. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY TUES
EVENING...AND THEN LEVEL OFF AND RISE A BIT LATE AT NITE AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEWRLY AND WE SEE AN INCR IN CLOUD COVER.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APRCHS FROM NRN GRTLKS WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS WRN ZONES...AND CHC
EAST. ARCTIC FRONT THEN APRCHS LATER WED NITE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ETA ABOUT 6 HRS
QUICKER THAN GFS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT THRU NRN NY DURING EARLY MORNING HRS BUT NOT THRU VERMONT
UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURS. SNOW SHWRS AND PSBL SQUALLS WITH THIS FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THRU MONDAY)...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN ACRS
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. THIS PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FCST PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS.
FIRST SYSTEM MOVES ACRS OUR FA EARLY THURSDAY WITH CHC POPS AND
STRONG LLVL CAA. FEEL SQUALLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT GIVEN FG
FIELDS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
PRECIP WL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN/NITE...BEFORE LLVL BECMG TOO
DRY. ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ENSEMBLE 85H TEMPS BTWN
-26C AND -30C WOULD SUPPORT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ONCE AGAIN.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS CONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BTWN -5F AND -10F
ACRS MOST OF FA AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CONTS FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED...WL
CONT TO CUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES AND TREND TOWARD
COOLER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS. WL CONT TO WATCH S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
JET FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE SE
CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN TROF AXIS/POSITION AND LIMITED RIDGING ACRS
WESTERN ATLANTIC FEEL SYSTEM WL PASS WELL SOUTH OF FA.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LES BAND OFF
CHAMPLAIN IMPACTING BTV TAF. CRNT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW BAND
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS LLVL WIND FIELD BECMGS MORE WESTERLY. WL
CONT TO MENTION -SW IN TAF AT BTV THRU 22Z ASSOCIATED WITH LES BAND
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE ZN WITH NORTHERLY SFC FLW.
OTHERWISE...DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES BY 00Z AND EXPECT
SCT-BKN030-040 AT BTV. CRNT SAT PIC SHOWS CLRING LINE NOW ENTERING
SLV AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT MSS BY 20Z AND BY 22Z AT SLK.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 18Z TUE AS HIGH PRES PROVIDES FA
WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
     TUESDAY NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY
     NYZ028-035.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TABER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EST MON JAN 17 2005

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-180934-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
435 AM EST MON JAN 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...BRINGING BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TEMPERATURES FROM
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO NOON TIME ON TUESDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL PROMPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM -25F TO -35F...AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM -35F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BE
UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -29F.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR UPDATES.