Dust Devil in Virginia, April 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 AM EDT MON APR 18 2005

CLDS ASSCTD WITH MID LVL S/W NOW MOVG SE INTO NC. WK BKDR CDFRNT
RTHR DIFFICULT TO DEFINE ATTM...BUT LTST DATA SUGGESTS LCTN ALONG
THE ERN SHORE W THRU PIEDMONT. WNDS HAVE GONE N-NW ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA...REMAINING W ACROSS THE S. CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH
A NICE AFTRN AHEAD. COOLEST TMPS ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...
WRMST ACROSS SW CNTYS. UPDATE ALRDY ISSUED MAINLY TO DROP MORNING
WORDING AND TO ADJUST TMPS/WND DRCTNS A BIT.

 FCSTID = 44

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENT IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW COMPACT VORT MAX OVER ERN WV/WRN VA...
MOVING SE. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK JET STREAK
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD-SCALE ERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING (UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR W)...
ONLY SCT-BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE
AS IT TRAVERSES THE MID ATLC REGION. HAVE WORDED MORE CLOUD COVER
EARLY TODAY...THOUGH COVERAGE/TRANSPARENCY WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY.

BY AFTN...NAM/GFS VERTICAL PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING
ONCE AGAIN IN MID/UPPER LEVELS AS VORT CENTER DEPARTS AND
DNVA/SUBSIDENCE RESUMES. COULD SEE A FEW CU DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESP ALONG THE COASTS...AS THE HIGH CENTER GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE
SERN COAST AND ALLOWS FOR A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SURFACE MSTR. CU
DEVELOPMENT MUCH LESS LIKELY FARTHER INLAND WITH THE LIGHT WRLY OR
DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...HAVE OPTED FOR HIGHS SOME 2-4F ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY (CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE)...AS THE CONTINUED LACK OF
GROUND MOISTURE OR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PRIOR TO FULL BLOOM IS
ALLOWING FOR MORE SENSIBLE HEATING (AND THUS SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES) NEAR THE SURFACE. DOWNSLOPING WRLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
CEN/SOUTHSIDE VA CERTAINLY WONT HURT MATTERS EITHER...AS WDSPRD
LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY. COOLER ALONG THE COASTS AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME
ONSHORE BY AFTN...THOUGH LIGHTER SEA BREEZES THIS GO AROUND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST NEAR 70F READINGS EVEN AT THE SHORE.

TUESDAY...GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA TAKES PLACE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES FARTHER OFF THE SERN COAST AND S-SW FLOW DEEPENS IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD 80+F READINGS...LIKELY
CLOSER TO THE COASTS GIVEN THE STRONGER OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT
(SHALLOWER/NARROWER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION).

WEDNESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW...THOUGH
GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS (SLOWER PROGRESSION) WILL HOLD OFF ON
POPS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...
AS PRE-FRONTAL WAA SURGE (DEEPENING SW-WSW DOWNSLOPING FLOW) SHOULD
PUT 850 MB TEMPS CLOSE TO +12C. HAVE WORDED LOWER-MID 80S OVER MOST
INTERIOR SECTIONS...AGAIN HIGHER THAN MAV GUIDANCE (CLOSER TO MET).

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID ATLC REGION WED NIGHT-THU...THOUGH HAVE
KEPT POPS AT <50% CONSIDERING THE LACK OF MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE
SW-WSW FLOW (NO GULF TRAJECTORIES). BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD...STEADIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
ECMWF/GFS PROGS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A VIGOROUS NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SRN STREAM WAVE RESULTING IN
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS BECOMING VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAININ LIGHT NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SWELLS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEA HEIGHTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THROUGH THE MORNING DROPPING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR VA BEACH/NRN OUTER BANKS AS NEARSHORE WAVES HAVE DROPPED OFF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ATLC COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND
TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...13
MARINE/AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EDT MON APR 18 2005

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-191030-
ACCOMACK VA-AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CAMDEN NC-CAROLINE VA-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CHOWAN NC-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-
ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GOOCHLAND VA-
GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-
MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
SOMERSET MD-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
YORK VA-
600 AM EDT MON APR 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND  STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

HURLEY