Hail in North Dakota, April 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

.EVENING UPDATE...
00Z MODEL DATA SHOWS NGM INITIALIZED POORLY WITH PCPN IN HAVING
LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER SE ND BY 06Z.  NAM/ETA SHOWING GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH PREV RUNS IN FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPS.

BACK TO TONIGHT...35-40KT 850 MB JET OVER ERN 1/2 ND WITH LARGE AREA
OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING THRU NRN/ERN ND INTO NRN MN THIS
EVENING...MAXING OUT AT 06Z...THEN ACTUALLY SOME DECREASE BY 12Z.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW 850 MB MOISTURE INCREASING AS EXPECTED...BUT WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A BIT STRONGER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TSRA FORMATION.  DID NOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF TSRA
NORTHWEST OF BISMARK SINCE 9 PM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST
BUT RATHER SLOWLY.  OVERLAY OF WATER VAPOR/500 MB RUC VORTICITY AND
RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED AROUND A VORT WHICH RUC PICKS
UP ON.  THIS VORT MOVES TOWARD DVL-LANGDON AREA BY 09Z AND THEN TO
NORTH OF HALLOCK BY 12Z.  WOULD EXPECT THIS CURRENT SPOTTY
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO LINGER AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THIS VORT.
WHETHER ANYTHING ELSE CAN GET GOING IS VERY IFFY.  KEPT 20 POP FOR
ISOLD TSRA 08Z-11Z WEST OF A VALLEY CITY-GFK-ROX LINE...AND THEN
KEPT LOW POP OVER FAR NRN VALLEY TIL 14Z.  THIS LINING UP WELL WITH
VORT MOVEMENT.   OTHERWISE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT
MORE THAN EXPECTED...AS INVERSION DEVELOPS BENEATH 850 MB JET AND
DEVELOPING CAP.  DEW PTS 45 TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 50S
SHOWING UP IN FAR SE ND/NE SD.   IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER DEW
PTS...LOW CLOUD IMAGERY IS SHOWING NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SISSETON HILLS.  IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD BUT UNSURE HOW SUCCESFULL IT WILL BE.

&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN PROBLEM IS WILL LOW CLOUDS TRY TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
GFK-FAR AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.  EARLIER TAF FORECASTS
WERE THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MIXED OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS.  BUT DID UPDATE BOTH TAFS AFTER SEEING NARROW RIBBON OF LOW
CLOUDS FORM IN THE SISSETON HILLS AREA INTO WRN RICHLAND COUNTY.
UNSURE IF IT WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD...BUT DID THROW IN SOME TEMPO
1500 FT CIGS LATE TONIGHT JUST IN CASE AS FLOW IS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
636 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171435-
BARNES ND-BENSON ND-CASS ND-CAVALIER ND-CLAY MN-EAST BECKER MN-
EAST MARSHALL MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-EAST POLK MN-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-EDDY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-GRANT MN-GRIGGS ND-
HUBBARD MN-KITTSON MN-LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-MAHNOMEN MN-NELSON ND-
NORMAN MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-PEMBINA ND-
PENNINGTON MN-RAMSEY ND-RANSOM ND-RED LAKE MN-RICHLAND ND-ROSEAU MN-
SARGENT ND-SOUTH BELTRAMI MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-STEELE ND-TOWNER ND-
TRAILL ND-WADENA MN-WEST BECKER MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-
WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST POLK MN-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WILKIN MN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEMIDJI...DETROIT LAKES...DEVILS LAKE...
FARGO...FERGUS FALLS...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...LANGDON...ROSEAU...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON
636 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UNTIL 9AM THIS MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A NEW ROCKFORD TO HILLSBORO TO BEMIDJI LINE. THE STORMS
SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE THUNDER THREAT WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AT THE
CURRENT TIME THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BERG