Flash Flood in Utah, October 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
255 PM MDT TUE OCT 18 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THIS EVENING. THE MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO SRN UT
THIS EVENING AND WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE WATCH MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LONGER BUT
WILL RE-EVALUATE THAT LATER THIS EVENING.

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 4 CORNERS BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT APPEARS IT WILL BE ABOUT TO
SLC.

MODELS ARE PHASING THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW ALONG THE PACNW COAST WITH
THE FASTER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROF IN THE GULF OF AK SO IT
WILL END UP AS A BRUSH BY FEATURE BARELY AFFECTING THE NORTH. EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WED NIGHT BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE THU NIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST THAT IT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT AND REMAINS INTO NEXT
WEEK.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY READJUST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW A SHORT WAVE INTO THE WEST AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEE LATEST SLCTAFSLC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TODAY FOR UTZ017-UTZ019-UTZ020-
     UTZ021.
WY...NONE.

&&

WILENSKY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 AM MDT TUE OCT 18 2005

UTZ010-012>014-016>021-191300-
WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
410 AM MDT TUE OCT 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN CENTRAL UTAH AND MAY BECOME HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...UTAHS DIXIE...SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LAKE POWELL
AREA. SEE SLCFFASLC FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UTAH
WEDNESDAY. A THREAT OF LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OBSERVED...ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

UTZ001>009-011-015-WYZ021-191300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
410 AM MDT TUE OCT 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
UTAH...NORTHERN UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.