Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, September 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP CONVECTION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT READY TO RULE IT OUT JUST YET...BUT
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RISEN CLOSE TO SUPPOSED CONVECTIVE TEMPS FROM 12Z
RAOBS BUT HARDLY ANY CU IF ANY HAS DEVELOPED ANYWHERE NEAR FA. LAPS
19Z IMAGES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FORMIDABLE CIN OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST NM WHERE PERHAPS A FEW SMALL CU HAVE FORMED PER VISIBLE
IMAGE. NAM 18Z RUN STILL BREAKS OUT SOME CONVECTION AFTER 00Z OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR THIS TO
OCCUR SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP/WX/QPF GRIDS AS INHERITED WITH ONLY
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATION
OCCUR AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.

STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEWPOINTS DECREASE SOME. WILL KEEP POP GRIDS
LESS THAN 20 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VEERED WIND PROFILE WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAN WE HAVE HAD LAST FEW
DAYS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE MAV NUMBERS ARE PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO EXPAND WWD OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE DISPLACED NWWD AS A RESULT. WILL SEE
POPS DECREASE FURTHER MONDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
THE DOORSTEP LATE IN THE DAY. THINK THAT CAP WILL HOLD AND MOISTURE
THIN ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER EXPECT FRONT TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND POPS NEAR NIL ATTM.
OTHERWISE RIDGE TO DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  95  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         66  96  64  92 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  97  65  93 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  97  65  93 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  95  65  94 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  99  66  95 /  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  98  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  99  66  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 100  69  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005

TXZ021>044-181645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WARM LAYER OF
AIR PRESENT AROUND 8000 FEET AND THIS MAY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMPLETELY.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THE COMBINATION OF A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.